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Logistics Market Update: July 2025

2025-07-03 11:00 Market Update
We begin this month with a summary of new legal requirements.

The Federal Law of 07.06.2025 No. 140-FZ "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On TED" and Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation” (which refers to Transport and Forwarding Activities). This law went through the usual legal approvals and comes into force on September 1, 2025.

From the main points:
  • As of September 1 2025, general provisions come into force, imposing certain obligations on the Forwarder. These include ensuring compliance with the requirements for the transportation of items and substances withdrawn from civil circulation or of limited circulation. We will also have to identify goods prohibited/restricted for transportation, using special measures for their detection.
  • From March 1, 2026, an obligation will be introduced for transport companies to send a notification to the authorized body about the conduct of transport and forwarding activities through the digital platform " GosLog "
  • From September 1, 2026, all forwarding documents can only be issued in electronic form.
As always, at the study stage, there are more questions than answers - the broad professional community is actively discussing legislative innovations.

On a happy note, we celebrate the “Scarlet Sails” event at this time of year. Scarlet Sails is a large-scale public celebration in St. Petersburg, held annually in late June to mark the end of the academic year for graduates. WELLGO congratulates all graduates and hope that the logistics industry welcomes some of them to the fold!

Direct sea service from South East Asia

Overall, services are operating normally. There are enough operators to fully cover supply, against a backdrop of moderate demand. Many lines are rotating their fleets to optimise capacity, moving vessels from less busy routes to the more popular ones. Schedules are being met, bookings are being confirmed, the number of direct services is increasing, and forwarders, including WELLGO, have the most up-to-date information on the sea freight market.
From the main points:
  • After the notice about the introduction of GRI from 01.06.2025 and the increase (on average) of the tariff by 40% in early June, in early July the rate dropped to 4900 USD
  • Equipment is in stock – local shortages can be ignored if you enquire in advance; the schedule is stable, and transit times are being met
  • There is occasional overbooking on a number of small lines in imports and regular overbooking on all lines in exports – the strong ruble impacts shipping rates
  • The trend towards tariff reduction against the backdrop of cargo shortages has not changed dramatically.
  • The NSR (Northern Sea Route) has seen early growth. China has had active participation in ice-class container ship building. Incidentally, WELLGO is also ready to offer solutions to customers who are not afraid of the cold and value speed!

Direct rail service from South East Asia

Due to anticipated tariff growth on direct sea services, railway solutions are now very attractive - it is possible to send cargo at advantageous rates and with fast transit times.
  • The current tariff level is 45% lower than at the beginning of the year.
  • Railway traffic in Zabaikalsk is being restored after the carriage derailing situation.
  • There are a few delays at the stations, the largest one due to the accumulation of empty carriages at Selyatino; since 1st of July, trains have been suspended from service.
  • Restrictions continue at the Alashankou border crossing due the modernisation of infrastructure.
Transshipment times at major border crossings:
  • Zabaikalsk: 12-14 days (until the congestion of containers that have been accumulating for the last two weeks is cleared)
  • Alashankou: 7-10 days
  • Erlian: 10-12 days

Multimodal transportation via the Far East

Carriers are recording a significant reduction in transportation throughout the Far East, this being approximately 20% of the usual cargo flow.
  • There is a large accumulation of empty flatcars in the region.
  • Tariffs are at a record low, and further reductions are not excluded.
  • Transit times and schedules are normal.
  • New ports of call are appearing in Southeast Asia; this direction is clearly not a bottleneck and the international freight forwarder’s toolbox always includes solutions to satisfy the most discerning cargo owners.

Marine services to other regions

Türkiye

Carriers note an inter-seasonal “drop in cargo” (about 25% from the usual), However, they expect an increase in imported refrigerated cargo transportation from the second half of July, with a peak in August. For general cargo, this may only happen by the beginning of September.

The decrease in the volume of cargo is mostly observed in exports, due to which, a large amount of empty equipment has already accumulated at the Novorossiysk Terminals. As a result, the focus of carriers is now on empty equipment egress so as to provide imported cargo space. This opens up the possibility of obtaining a very low tariff for sea transportation. In some cases, the cost of freight is almost comparable to the price of port charges for transportation on LIFO terms.

United Arab Emirates

Against the backdrop of a decline in the overall volume of cargo, tariffs also showed a downward trend in May-June. Now, given the news from the Straits of Hormuz, tariffs may increase and the usual schedule may change. We will monitor the development of the situation, but for now, carriers report that they have a plan "B" with the transfer of ship calls to the port of Khorfakkan. However, we know that transfers do not make logistics seamless. Alas.

An important development - overbooking on the St. Petersburg – UAE route. Applications are now being accepted for August. Contact WELLGO for more details!

India

In June, tariffs on individual lines decreased by 10-15% due to a shortage of cargo. In general, this direction remains very interesting for both cargo owners and carriers. Even though we may see increased capacity and more operators, we still recommend more or less proven solutions. We continue to monitor the situation.

There is also overbooking on the export route from St. Petersburg to India; bookings are currently being accepted for August.

China

The air freight market from China is experiencing a seasonal lull. Due to the slowdown in cargo traffic, airline rates are falling. The same trend is likely to continue throughout July.
  • Average rates are 2.5–2.7 USD / kg. Minimum rates for high-density cargo reach 2.1–2.3 USD / kg.
  • Transportation is carried out both on cargo flights from CGO , HRB , LHW, URC, and on passenger flights from PEK , PVG , CAN , CTU , TAO , SZX .
  • Capacity is available. Average transit time from major airports in China is 3-4 days.
To optimize costs even in the low season, WELLGO offers a variety of solutions for different cargo categories – for example:
  • Sending small cargo as part of regular consolidations
  • Combined economical services for large consignments
  • Dangerous goods (route via Khabarovsk, regular TIR auto deliveries with a transit time of 12-14 days).

Türkiye

The situation with flights from Turkey has stabilised: Turkish Airlines have resumed regular wide-body flights to Istanbul, Moscow and St. Petersburg.
  • Russian air carriers continue to operate flights to Istanbul on narrow-body aircraft, which limits the shipment of palletised cargo.
  • From Antalya, carriers operate wide-body aircraft with high frequency, which provides greater opportunities and capacity for shipments.
  • The tariff level for cargo over 1000 kg is below 2.0 USD/kg.

United Arab Emirates

The air travel situation in the Middle East was turbulent at the end of June. Some carriers cancelled flights, while others reduced their commercial load due to longer flight times.
  • At the moment, flights of all airlines have resumed.
  • Charter cargo programs to Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky are carried out without changes
  • During the period of flight cancellations, the market responded by increasing tariffs, which are returning to the usual “summer” level of about 4.50 USD / kg for cargo flights and about 3.00 USD / kg for narrow-body passenger flights.
  • Saudia plans to launch direct flights to Moscow. From October 2025, the national carrier of Saudi Arabia will begin flying from Riyadh. Flights will be operated 3 times a week.

India

The situation with flight cancellations in the Middle East has also affected the Indian sub-continent:
  • At the moment, air traffic has been restored.
  • The cheapest routes for shipping from India are Middle East carriers ( GulfAir, MahanAir) with rates below 2.50 USD/ kg on temporarily cancelled flights at the end of June.
  • Direct flights are still carried out only by Russian air carriers: Aeroflot, Volga-Dnepr. Tariffs are consistently high: 4.50–5.00 USD/kg.
  • Transit options via Tashkent, China, Vietnam remain working options.

China

The situation with road transport from China is quite stable. Tariffs remain at the level of the previous month. The situation at the borders is largely unchanged, except for an increase in the number of inspections in Kazakhstan.
  • Average cost on the route Shanghai - Moscow is 9000 USD/Curtain truck.
  • The main crossing between Russia and China is Manchuria/Zabaikalsk. Reservation to queue for entry is 2 weeks. Border crossing is 1-2 days. The advantage of this crossing is the unimpeded transit for clothing goods.
  • Checks at the border have become more frequent. Goods that previously passed through Kazakhstan without hindrance are now being inspected and sent for examination (toys, fabrics).
  • There is also an increased number of Chinese carriers ready to carry out direct delivery by vehicles, both to Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
At the borders between China and Kazakhstan, there are still difficulties with electronic booking allowing entry to the border warehouse; at the moment, the deadlines for ordering a slot for entry at the main crossings are:
  • Alashankou/Dostyk: queue reservations for a month, paid reservations for several days;
  • Khorgos/Altynkul: booking a queue at least a month in advance, paid booking for several days;
  • Bakhty/Tacheng: free slot for 2 weeks, paid for1day;
  • Zimunai/Maikapchigai: no queue.

Europe

The situation with road transport from Europe has remained stable for several months. Tariffs are not volatile, there are no queues at the border.
  • The average cost on the Germany – Moscow route is €3500–4000 / Curtain side.
  • Temperature controlled cargo cost is (on average) €1000 /vehicle more expensive than unrefrigerated cargo. The demand for refrigerated semi-trailers is always higher.
  • There are currently no queues to leave the EU; the average time to cross the border is 6 hours.

Final remarks

This is what July looks like from the WELLGO perspective;

Geopolitics continues to influence the agenda: navigation in a number of regions is still not safe. As transportation alternatives, the development of International Trade Corridors, or ITCs, requires both investments and the political will of the parties to continue active participation in development projects.

There is a slowdown in imports along with attempts by businesses to find growth points in exports. This includes the Africa and Latin America Trade Lanes, in addition to the traditional channels of Southeast Asia,

We see consistent steps to expand the service capabilities of the NSR.

These are the significant trends we see until mid-Autumn. Then, we will see increased consumer demand to spin the flywheel of traditional trade exchange, and getting back to BAU – business as usual, meaning back to turbulence in rates, lack of capacity and violation of transit times.

In the meantime, enjoy your summer from WELLGO!