Transport Logistics Market Update: December 2025

It's well known that Alexander Sergeyevich is a national treasure! However, he lived in the 19th century, when fluffy snow covered the country during a gloomy December. Now it's different - in St. Petersburg it's sleet, in Moscow it's grey and snowless, in Siberia it's icy, and in Petropavlovka-Kamchatsky it's midnight.

During December, transport workers, logisticians, forwarders —in short, everyone involved in freight transportation—try their best, in any weather, to achieve miracles: delivering everything that remains outstanding by the end of the year, so that a happy client can relax with their family, in anticipation of the holiday.

WELLGO have transported a huge range of goods this year - clothes – pipes – vaccines, hygiene products, champagne, televisions, cars, food, toys – the list seems endless! Offer us anything else to transport before the end of the year – we'll do our best to deliver it. By plane, for sure! (Stop Press - in the new year, we'll launch an international air express cargo delivery service.)

Dear customers - It has been a great pleasure, to be of service to you, fulfill your wishes, and remain reliable partners and good friends. The December transport update is our last of the year, but we're 100% certain it won't be the last in our partnership.

Please read and look forward to the holidays. They're coming soon – Christmas and New Year!

Joy, goodness, happiness, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

With our seasonal best wishes,

The WELLGO Team.

The expected winter surcharge introduction on ocean freight rates from China to St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, and Novorossiysk has not significantly changed the average prices. December is expected to be positive in this regard, amid a growing shortage of available space. All scheduled routes are operating normally, and the main operators are operating and accepting last bookings for the end of December.

There are still seven direct voyages to St. Petersburg with available seats, but they will definitely fill up soon – please don’t hesitate to contact us.

One direct voyage is scheduled to Novorossiysk, available until mid-December. It's worth noting that the port situation in Novorossiysk remains challenging: the port is periodically closed for exercises and counter-terrorism operations, with weather conditions are also a factor.

The steady decline in import cargo traffic through Russia's maritime infrastructure during 2025 will likely continue into next year. This, coupled with the availability of capacity and equipment, will likely lead to a gradual reduction in maritime freight rates.

For December:

Two-week-old plans are currently being fulfilled. Delays have even affected the largest station, Xi'an. One possible reason for the delays is the curtailment of shipment plans to the Russian Federation and their redistribution to European destinations, according to our partners in China. If we evaluate all stations in China collectively, we can expect a reduction in plans by approximately 30% in December.

Given the problems Russian importers experienced in October and November with shipments through Kazakhstan, the new delays in Chinese cargo shipments are generating legitimate concern among importers. With the New Year just around the corner, and long holidays to follow, we're hoping to avoid closed terminals and warehouses, which would incur additional storage costs. At some smaller, irregular stations, train departure delays can last over a month. Typically , smaller stations strive to offer competitive rates, which can be as much as $ 1,000 below the market average. However, the devil is in the detail – please check with us before booking.

The situation at the border with Kazakhstan remains normal. Freight train traffic through Kazakhstan has been restored, with no significant delays related to inspections. Currently, transhipment takes 4-7 days, with no queues.

The largest flow of imported cargo passes through Zabaikalsk. It's no surprise that the rates here are the highest.

Equipment shortages are a common occurrence before the end of the year. Pre-carrier prices are starting to rise, as supplies are needed from remote locations. Drivers are (for some reason) in short supply before the New Year. These factors will likely lead to further increases in railway tariffs.

So far, we haven’t heard anything critical about the “abandoned” trains and conventions.

The Vladivostok route offers stable, predictable conditions. There are no roadblocks or delays when loading onto railway cars. Some vessels previously managed by STF Shipping (we covered this case in previous issues) have been transferred to Delo Group. Cargo that was stuck and could not be unloaded in Nakhodka was eventually delivered to recipients by several other operators.

Rates will remain high in December. This follows the significant increase in November, which ranged from 10% to 15% compared to the same period last year, and compared to October, rates have increased by more than 60%. Most of the capacity for large shipments was already purchased by mid-month. Available cargo space from China to Russia is currently extremely limited. High demand and capacity shortages are the main factors driving rate instability, leading to a situation where bookings only lock in a seat on a flight, but the rate is not guaranteed.

The average tariff level at the moment is as follows:

As usual, the range of fares depends on many factors: the departure airport, the nearest available departure date, booking conditions ( must go or stand by ), cancellation conditions and flight frequency.

With rising rates, capacity shortages, and waiting times for the next available flight, a good alternative to air freight is the TIR truck option —a direct truck arriving at SVO-2 airport without reloading. Stable terminal-to-terminal delivery times of 10-13 days and attractive rates starting from 4 CNY make this option increasingly popular.

Turkey's peak season officially ended with the arrival of November, with fewer tourists visiting the country. Due to the decline in passenger traffic to holiday resorts, Aeroflot and Southwind Airlines are now operating flights with smaller passenger aircraft. This means fewer opportunities to ship large cargo shipments on direct flights between Turkey and Russia. The winter season Air Freight market currently offers the following options:

Direct flights:

Transit flights:

The current fare level depends on the aircraft type, airline and route:

The situation with cargo capacity from the UAE is currently quite favourable. Dubai is in peak tourist season, which has led to a significant increase in passenger traffic. Passenger flights are in high demand, with most tickets for December already sold out. This, in turn, creates favourable capacity for cargo flights, as airlines, by increasing flight frequency, can effectively utilize their wide- and narrow-body aircraft for commercial cargo.

A flexible cargo charter program is also available for booking. Flights operate biweekly. Custom charter flights can be arranged upon request.

No changes to the flight schedule are expected, but a slight increase in fares for passenger flights is possible in December.

Direct air service between India and Russia is currently supported by flights from two Russian airlines only. However, India is a vast country with 28 states and 12 major international airports. These options are insufficient to fully meet the growing demand for cargo transportation. The market needs new options to ensure reliable and regular air service.

With limited direct flights and transit difficulties, WELLGO continues to provide optimal solutions for cargo delivery from India to Russia.

We previously mentioned that Kazakhstan's tightening of customs controls on Chinese goods led to widespread delays at the border, with up to 90% of cargo awaiting inspection. The average wait for clearance was three to four weeks, forcing logistics companies to reroute traffic through alternative routes, primarily Manzhouli-Zabaikalsk, and other border crossings. This overload led to a shortage of vehicles and a significant increase in tariffs.

Additional difficulties have arisen at the border between Kazakhstan and Russia due to random inspections by the Kazakh side and increased Russian customs control to prevent illegal "grey" imports.

Despite a slight easing of measures in October and November, the transport community remains concerned about recurrences. Some carriers are again warning of a new wave of inspections in Kazakhstan, although inspections are also taking place in Manchuria.

Regarding current slots for entry into border warehouses in China:

A trend of weekly price increases for transport services began to be observed before the holidays—both the Russian New Year period (also associated with the expected increase in the VAT rate after the New Year) and the traditional Chinese New Year celebration.

The current rate Shanghai – Moscow via Kazakhstan is 11,000 USD /TS, via Manchuria – 14,000 USD /TS.

Following the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border from September 12 to 25 and the suspension of Lithuanian-Belarusian border crossings from October 29 to November 20, the borders are now operating normally. Furthermore, following negotiations, Poland has reopened additional border crossings: Kuznica for passenger vehicles and Bobrowniki for all types of vehicles.

As a result, queues at the border are easing, and overheated prices begin to cool.

When planning the transportation of temperature-sensitive cargo, it's important to consider the current high seasonal demand for refrigerated freight. Consequently, the number of available vehicles is extremely limited.

The current rate Germany – Moscow for an awning is 6000 euros / vehicle, Italy – Moscow for a refrigerated vehicle is 9500 euros / vehicle.

China's port cargo turnover in October 2025 amounted to 1.57 billion tons, up 2.2% from the previous year, according to data published on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

In monthly analyses, transshipment volumes remain at a high level, but are lower than the peak levels of May and August.

Overall, since the beginning of the year, the total cargo turnover of China's ports has increased by 4.3% or 629 million tons and amounted to 15.1 billion tons.

The volume of foreign trade cargo transshipment in January-October amounted to 4.7 billion tons, which is 3.7% more than last year.

Turkey’s first railway container terminal has opened.

This week, the Railport railway terminal in northwestern Turkey sent out its first train.

The project operator, a joint venture between the Turkish line Arkas and the German company Duisport , positions the terminal as the final point of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway corridor and calls it Turkey’s first intermodal terminal.