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Logistics Market Update: August 2025

2025-08-11 14:00 Market Update
As we progress through summer and prepare for the upcoming autumn-winter freight season, WELLGO would like to share the latest news, developments, and trends in the logistics services market. The prevailing trend in August is that carriers are fixing their rates only until mid-month, anticipating increased cargo volumes and, consequently, the opportunity to raise tariffs toward the end of August and beginning of September.

Our colleagues in China report that, as of August 1st, Chinese customs have intensified controls on Russian exports for certain goods, including: toys, lighting equipment, low-voltage devices, functional apparel, and others. Additional inspections are being conducted for these categories, which may take over seven days to complete. This factor should be considered when planning shipment schedules.

Direct sea service from South East Asia

July saw the launch of new Northern Sea Route (NSR) services and fleet rotations, which led to a shortage of vessel departures from Shanghai to St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk. The situation is expected to stabilize in August. However, considering the potential increase in demand and cargo volumes, WELLGO advises advance cargo planning well in advance, along with confirmation of vessel schedules and space availability with your freight forwarder. We recommend prioritizing direct sea routes to St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk, and avoiding transshipment via Turkish ports. Transfer operations there remain unpredictable in terms of transit times and feeder vessel connections.
  • Rates via the Suez Canal remain unchanged; NSR rates have decreased by USD 200 (early July vs. end of July).
  • Equipment is available, schedules are stable, and transit times are being maintained.
  • Export from St. Petersburg remains overbooked; the next available bookings are for vessels departing at the end of September/early October. No significant export demand is observed in Novorossiysk.
  • Trend toward potential rate increases in the second half of August and early September.
Latest News:
  • Carrier C-Star is facing financial difficulties. We recommend avoiding bookings with this line and closely monitoring the situation.
  • FESCO has announced a new direct maritime service on the route Ningbo – Shanghai – Rizhao – Dalian – Busan – Ho Chi Minh – Mundra – St. Petersburg (and vice versa). Feeder services from Malaysian, Thai, South Korean, and Indonesian ports will be available under this service, operated by FESCO Baltorient Line (FBOL).
  • Chinese carriers continue to show strong interest in developing the NSR: NewNew Shipping Line (China) plans to invest up to RUB 200 billion in the development of a deep-water area at the Port of Arkhangelsk.

Direct rail service from South East Asia

Over the past two weeks, direct rail freight from China has undergone the most significant changes since the beginning of the year. Primarily, the number of scheduled trains has been halved, leading to a shortage of capacity. At most major Chinese stations, bookings are now only available for the second half of August. Kazakhstan and Mongolia have reduced rail capacity for trains bound for Russia, prioritizing transit services to the EU. This reduction has led to increased tariffs for this service. Rate fixation is also challenging—agreed r`ates typically apply only to a specific train. The situation is expected to stabilize within the next two to three weeks, but currently, the market is experiencing a period of "turbulence" with continued upward pressure on rates.
  • Current tariffs have increased by USD 400–700 compared to early July.
  • Rates must be verified for each individual train. Equipment is available but early booking is essential due to reduced train schedules.
  • Stations within the Moscow railway hub are operating under normal conditions.
No significant delays in train departures from China, and we see no delays at border crossings. Border transit times:
  • Zabaykalsk: 7–10 days
  • Alashankou: 3–5 days
  • Erenhot: 5–7 days
Latest News:
  • Russian Railways (RZD) is preparing a major tariff reform, with a potential +15% surcharge on container freight expected by 2027.
  • FESCO has launched a direct container train service from Vietnam to Russia via China and Mongolia. Departures from Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Haiphong, and Da Nang to Chengdu and Russia. The first train arrived at Silikatnaya station. The service runs once a week (planned to increase to twice weekly), with a transit time of 35 days.

Multimodal transportation via the Far East

Due to a significant accumulation of empty flatcars and gondolas at Far Eastern rail yards, and considering that RZD may impose penalties for sending empty equipment from central Russia to the Far East, carriers are incentivized to attract more import cargo via this corridor. As a result, tariffs remain relatively low, and operations are running under normal conditions.

WELLGO notes that rates are stable for the first half of August, but a rise is highly likely in the second half. Currently we see no equipment shortage. Spot overbooking exists with certain lines, but no general capacity shortage.
  • No vessel rollings or schedule delays.
  • Rail dispatch to Moscow takes 5–7 days; longer for regional destinations. Local railway hub stations are operating under normal reception conditions.
  • RTG has launched new services from Shanghai and Qingdao, with the first vessel scheduled for mid-August.

Marine services to other regions

Turkey

  • Carriers are currently experiencing an off-season "dip" in cargo volumes (estimated at 25% below usual levels), although an increase in refrigerated import shipments is expected in the second half of August. The peak season has already started for reefer cargo, while general cargo demand is expected to pick up only at the beginning of September.
  • The decline is more pronounced in the export direction, resulting in a significant accumulation of empty equipment at terminals in Novorossiysk. Consequently, carriers are now focusing on repositioning empty containers to support import flows, which creates an opportunity for very low sea freight rates. In some cases, shipping costs are nearly equivalent to port handling fees only, under LIFO (Last In, First Out) terms.
  • Rates remain at a consistently low level; space and equipment are available.
  • During the last week of July, vessel discharging was delayed by 2–3 days due to a Presidential Decree.

United Arab Emirates

  • The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not impacted sea routes - all services are operating normally.
  • Increased demand for sea freight imports is apparent. Rates remain at June–July levels, but space is being booked up 10–14 days before the planned ETD. Early booking is recommended.
  • If current demand trends continue, a rate increase is likely from September.
  • Export from Russia remains overbooked.

India

  • WELLGO note growing demand for freight from India. Some carriers are increasing vessel call frequency at Mundra and Nhava Sheva ports, forming slot-sharing agreements to ensure more frequent departures.
  • Rates remain stable at previous months’ levels; space and equipment are available.
  • Export from St. Petersburg to India remains overbooked; new bookings are accepted for the second half of September.

New Routes

Shipping lines MLINE and VUXX will soon launch import services from new ports in the Middle East:
  • Iraq – Umm Qasr (North Port)
  • Kuwait – Shuwaikh
  • Oman – Sohar
  • Qatar – Doha (Hamad)
  • UAE – Khalifa (Abu Dhabi)

China

In July, air freight rates from China were slightly higher than in June but remain relatively stable.
  • Summer demand for air cargo is moderate, but there is no capacity surplus: increased tourist passenger traffic has reduced available commercial payload on scheduled passenger flights.
  • Current rates: USD 2.25–3.00/kg on passenger flights and USD 1.7–2.2/kg on dedicated cargo flights, depending on cargo density.
  • We see growing popularity of the alternative TIR road service, offering delivery from China within 10–12 days at competitive rates: USD 0.95–1.7/kg for medium-density cargo and USD 0.40–0.95/kg for high-density cargo.
  • A slight rate decrease is expected in August due to increased capacity, as several airlines have announced higher flight frequencies.

Turkey

The peak tourist season in Turkey is underway, increasing passenger traffic and, consequently, available commercial cargo capacity.
  • Current rates are stable and attractive, ranging from USD 1.15–2.00/kg.
  • Most cargo is being shipped via Antalya Airport due to the availability of wide-body aircraft. Istanbul remains an option, but commercial payload on direct Russian carrier flights is limited due to aircraft type. For larger shipments from Istanbul, transit options are available.

United Arab Emirates

No significant changes on the Dubai–Moscow route. Reduced tourist traffic has led to decreased frequencies of regular flights.
  • Large shipments are handled via a charter program with bi-weekly departures (USD 4–4.5/kg). Smaller consignments can be shipped on daily narrow-body flights (USD 3–3.5/kg).
  • Due to the significant rate difference, direct passenger airline services remain highly popular—early booking is strongly recommended. Additionally, Utair and S7 have temporarily suspended flights to Dubai during the summer, reducing available passenger flight capacity.

India

Direct air connectivity from India continues to be maintained solely by Russian carriers.
  • Aeroflot and Volga-Dnepr offer direct flights, which are less risky in terms of booking confirmation. However, rates are the highest, averaging USD 4–4.7/kg. More competitive rates of USD 3.2–4.5/kg are available via transit flights operated by Vietnam Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Uzbekistan Airways, and Ethiopian Airlines. High demand and certain commodity restrictions with some carriers should be considered.
  • Recent developments in India’s domestic logistics network now allow cargo to be delivered to almost any departure airport. From a customs perspective, cargo is cleared for export within the region of the shipper’s registration, thus broadening the range of available air freight options.

China

In July, road freight costs increased slightly compared to June. A modest rise is also expected in August.
  • Average cost for the Shanghai–Moscow route: USD 9,500 per curtain-side trailer.
  • Border inspections have become more frequent. Goods that previously passed through Kazakhstan without issues (e.g., toys, textiles) are now being inspected and referred for expert examination. Inspection queues may extend up to three weeks.
  • WELLGO report an increased presence of Chinese carriers, offering direct trucking services to both Kazakhstan and Russia.
  • Primary Russia–China crossing: Manzhouli / Zabaykalsk. Queue booking: 2 weeks. Border crossing time: 1–2 days. This crossing allows for seamless transit of HS Chapter 84 goods and apparel.
Electronic booking for entry into border warehouses between China and Kazakhstan remains challenging, though significant improvements have been observed. Carriers are adapting by booking slots in advance. The current slot availability at major crossings appears to be:
  • Bakty / Tacheng: Free booking available in 1–1.5 weeks; paid slots available next day.
  • Alashankou / Dostyk: No free slots for one month; paid booking available in 2 days.
  • Zimunai / Maykapchagai: No queue; closed on Sundays.
  • Khorgos / Nur Zholy: No free slots for one month; paid booking available in 3 days.

Europe

  • Rates for curtain-sides remain stable and unchanged for several months – for example, Germany–Moscow: EUR 4,000 per trailer.
  • Reefer cargo transport costs (on average) EUR 1,000 per truck more than non-temperature-controlled cargo. Demand for refrigerated trailers remains consistently high.
  • No departure queues from the EU; average border crossing time: 1 day. Market intelligence suggests increased border inspections due to new restrictions introduced by the EU.
In a volatile market shaped by shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving foreign trade conditions, it is crucial to monitor information proactively. All options need accurate analysis, to ensure supply chain resilience against external risks. This is why WELLGO produces transport updates, in which we publish verified insights that we use ourselves.

Enjoy August and prepare for the peak season in trade and logistics!