Logistics market update: October 2025

October, October… The Scientific Director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center announced that summer in Moscow is… OVER!

With autumn comes the season of rising ARVI cases, possibly a a weakened immune system, but also growth in the turnover of pharmaceutical business and therefore pharma logistics.

According to a Verified Market Reports study covering the period from 2023 to 2030, revenue in the global pharmaceutical logistics market amounted to USD 100.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 150.1 billion by 2033. Safe and efficient international transportation of pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and other medicines, complex cold chain systems, and stricter requirements from manufacturers, distributors, and regulators for GDP compliance, are driving logistics companies to develop their services and technologies.

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) reported that 70% of biopharmaceutical products currently require cold chain logistics, underscoring the growing demand for temperature-sensitive transportation. The report features data from leading companies such as Deutsche Post DHL, Kuehne Nagel, UPS (Marken), DB Group, FedEx, Nippon Express, World Courier, and others. Let’s be honest, the mention of DHL as a global leader in pharmaceutical logistics, leveraging its extensive network and innovative solutions, is particularly pleasing to us.

Therefore, WELLGO, as the General Partner, invites you to attend the 7th Conference “Pharmaceutical Logistics,” which will be held in Moscow on October 17, 2025, under the auspices of RTA and SCM Pharm. Natalia Bochkova, our CEO, will present an overview of the international logistics market and speak about the specifics of transport logistics on key routes, price dynamics, and cargo flows.

Read more about event by link.

WELLGO takes pride in its traditions, achievements, and expertise in pharmaceutical logistics! Wishing everyone strong health!

And now, as usual, let’s move on to the latest news and trends in our October update.

The Chinese National Holidays from October 1 to 7, have a significant impact on maritime transportation. As early as two weeks before the holidays, carriers stop accepting new bookings, creating a “pre-holiday tsunami” effect. During the holiday period, businesses shut down, factories suspend production, and logistics companies face an increased workload. After the holidays, the situation gradually improves. At the same time, a surge in shipments is expected, which will put additional strain on the ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen. Container loading queues may reach 7–10 days, and freight rates are likely to rise.

Due to Super Typhoon Ragasa in the southern regions of China, a large accumulation of containers and cargo that could not be delivered to the ports of Nansha and Yantian has formed. The quantity of available feeder vessels is also limited.

Nevertheless, shipowners remain cautious about raising rates and are still forced to take into account the shortage of demand.

The need to verify tariffs for each specific train remains. For the period after the Chinese holidays, tariffs have not yet been fixed. The market expectation is an increase in freight rates by USD 400–500. Capacity is available, and currently, there is no overbooking, nor is this expected in the coming weeks.

At the Kazakhstan border, the risk of cargo inspections has increased, with queues forming and growing. Most often, inspections target equipment, children’s goods, personal hygiene products, and controlled cargo (SCC, SGR). Other categories of goods, as practice shows, are inspected less frequently. Delays related to longer border crossing times are motivating carriers to redirect trains through Mongolia and Zabaikalsk. If the Kazakhstan situation does not normalise, bottlenecks may also occur there.

The multimodal transportation market through the Russian Far East is characterised by a steady shortage of cargo. Shippers remain cautious about this route due to last year’s experience of delays on the rail leg. As a result, rates remain low, while competition among operators for client business is growing.

Maritime services in other regions show variations in tariff dynamics and load levels, but overall, the logistics situation remains stable, with no significant delays or disruption risks observed.

WELLGO notes that September was marked by a significant revival in the airfreight market from China. Rates steadily increased in the first half of the month and by mid-September had almost doubled compared to August. As with maritime shipping, many shippers booked capacity in advance to ship their goods before the holidays and avoid delays.

The velvet season (that is, early autumn) and the increased number of flights operated by Russian airlines with tourists are helping to maintain attractive airfreight rates.

• The cost of transportation from Turkey is USD 1.15–2/kg on Russian passenger airline flights.
• Direct air connections make Istanbul and Antalya key transport hubs for Russia. This enables movement of Turkish cargo, along withthe organization of complex multimodal shipments (air+air, road+air) with transit through Turkey.

On September 29, Aeroflot resumed direct wide-body passenger flights between Dubai and Moscow, which are now operated daily.

• Rates are USD 3.85/kg for general cargo and USD 4.35/kg for cargo containing ELI batteries.
• In October, Utair is expected to resume flights with larger aircraft, while its charter cargo program continues at a frequency of twice per week.

The international transit hub in Dubai offers broad logistics capabilities and direct air connectivity with Russia, enabling the transportation of virtually any type of cargo

In September, airfreight rates from India declined due to a decrease in cargo flows to Russia.

• Rates on direct Volga-Dnepr flights (Mumbai) fell by about 15% and currently stand at USD 3.95–4.1/kg.
• Alternative transit options (Vietnam Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Uzbekistan Airways, Ethiopian Airlines) are offered at rates of USD 3–3.5/kg.

For this reason, during the current period, a more reliable solution is the direct crossing between China and Russia—Manzhouli/Zabaikalsk. The unhindered transit of HS group 84 goods, clothing, and its 24/7 operation during the holidays, is a clear advantage.

Since late August, the throughput capacity of the Manzhouli–Zabaikalsk crossing has decreased due to stricter rules for booking electronic queue slots. Authorities are now monitoring attempts to use special bot programs to reserve slots: if a carrier is caught doing so, it is blocked for several days, and its trucks cannot enter. Therefore, slots must be booked manually and in advance.

The main unexpected development in September was the closure of the Poland–Belarus border from September 12 to 25, which extended beyond expectations. Cargo was promptly redirected through the Baltics, which led to higher rates and week-long queues at crossings for both import cargo from Europe and transit goods from Asia.

• The temporary difficulties at the border triggered a 30–40% increase in tariffs compared to standard levels.
• The average cost of transportation along the Germany–Moscow route reached EUR 6,000 per tent.

Nevertheless, while importers were preparing for the worst and modeling new supply chains, the ban was unexpectedly lifted. There is hope that in October, rates will return to normal levels as the backlog of traffic at the borders is cleared.

On September 26, a train loaded with auto parts, digital devices, and consumer goods departed from Xi’an (the administrative center of Shaanxi Province, Northwest China). This marks the launch of a new China–Europe route in the form of rail-sea combined transportation connecting Xi’an and Hamburg (Germany).

According to Liu Shunli, a representative of the Xi’an branch of the China State Railway Corporation, the new route uses a “rail + sea” multimodal model. The train departs from Xi’an, travels through Kazakhstan and Russia, and arrives in St. Petersburg. There, the cargo will be transshipped and transported by sea through the Baltic Sea to Hamburg. From Hamburg, the goods will be distributed to other European regions such as Duisburg (Germany), Budapest (Hungary), and others.

Going forward, the Xi’an branch of the China State Railway Corporation plans to increase train frequency, develop new routes, and introduce new products in line with market demand. This will ensure sufficient capacity for building a new framework of development in Eurasia.

On September 22, a cargo vessel departed from the Chinese port of Ningbo and, for the first time, will sail to Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The transit time to the UK port of Felixstowe is expected to be 18 days—twice as fast as the traditional route through the Suez Canal. The Istanbul Bridge container ship will call at Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdańsk before completing its voyage in St. Petersburg. The vessel is carrying 1,000 standard containers, primarily goods sold via e-commerce platforms, as well as batteries and high-performance energy storage systems.

The new route is expected to provide strong support to Chinese companies in overcoming uncertainties in global trade and in developing new international logistics channels. We note that key maritime routes such as the Panama Canal, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal are currently under unprecedented strain.

Against the backdrop of Poland closing its border crossings with Belarus—which left more than 130 “China–Europe” freight trains stuck on the Belarusian side in Brest—the launch of the Arctic “China–Europe” express opens up more diversified routes for trade between China and Europe, increasing the resilience of global supply chains.