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Transport Logistics Market Update: March 2026

2026-03-03 09:00 Market Update
Coming to the end of a decidedly arctic Winter season is always a welcome event, especially this year. We saw a record 86 cm of snow in the capital from over 72 years of observations!

Spring is already upon us. Federal Law No. 140 is a key focus for the Transport and Logistics sector. Starting March 1st, an electronic registry of notifications of transport and forwarding activities will be launched on the GosLog platform. All participants in the transportation market— legal entities and individual entrepreneurs— 3PL’s, 4PL’s and so on, are required to register on this national transport and logistics platform, built on the "single-window" principle.

The law's provisions are gradually taking on practical significance, with Government- defined goals, objectives, functions, and principles for the national digital transport and logistics platform. There are established rules for the formation and maintenance of a register of notifications on transport and freight forwarding activities, as well as the forms and formats of documents.

The platform, GosLog, includes the following subsystems: "Digital Transport Passport," "Single Window Mechanisms," "Digital Participant Profile," "Unified Database of Regulatory and Reference Information," and many other useful digital services, as well as an incident management system.

The implementation of GosLog will offer customers, cargo owners and participants in the national and international shipping market a number of advantages related to digitalization, increased transparency, process optimization, and cost reduction.

Here are some examples:
  • Electronic document management will reduce the time required to process documents and eliminate the need to duplicate them for different agencies (the Federal Customs Service, the Border Service, Rospotrebnadzor, etc.). Customs Clearance will be further optimised.
  • Transportation will become more transparent, and the market will be cleaned up by eliminating “grey” schemes and unfair competition.
  • Cargo owners will be able to select freight forwarders and transport companies from a list of verified organizations, and a digital participant profile will allow businesses to find clients and partners more quickly.
  • A traffic flow modeling service will help analyze the volume and frequency of transportation across the country, which will enable infrastructure planning and more effective economic management.
  • Ultimately, thanks to GosLog, according to experts, companies will be able to reduce cargo transportation costs by 16.5%!
Digitalisation and AI are a growing feature in the Supply Chain and Freight forwarding sector.
Breaking news…

The impact of the escalating Middle East conflict has now gone beyond the regional issue. Several flights have been delayed, even to the point of a complete stoppage, to the Persian Gulf countries. Reports are circulating that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to shipping, and maritime traffic with several transit countries may be affected.

Tariff forecasts in this update will be adjusted as market participants gain a better understanding of the situation. Specifically, we anticipate that shipping costs from China to Russia will increase for container and road freight, and border delays are possible due to the redirection of European traffic to direct rail and road.

Container turnover due to longer delivery times will likely lead to an increase in container usage rates.

WELLGO specialists are closely monitoring the situation, coordinating with their partners to maintain supply chain stability and obtain reliable information about goods in transit and carrier plans.
Container shipping

Air transportation

Automobile transportation

Global Market News

Direct sea service from Southeast Asia

After the New Year holidays, China is slowly returning to normal operations. Responses to inquiries are coming faster, and information on cargo status is becoming more reliable. No further problems expected by the second week of March.

Direct sea services from China's main ports to St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk are virtually full until the end of March. If you're aiming to load during this period, it's best to consider alternatives such as direct rail and the Far East.

What you need to know:
  • In March, there are only places left for services with transshipment; transit times for such options vary between 65-70 days.
  • There remains hope for a waiting list - seats on direct flights may only become available if someone cancels their bookings .
  • There is no shortage of equipment
  • We've noticed that there have been some complaints about the quality of the container equipment provided by shipping lines. To avoid any negative consequences, please specify in your booking request: " Need an A-CLASS container ."
  • The average tariff level to St. Petersburg is 5000-6000 USD , approximate transit time is 50-55 days (port to port)
  • The average tariff level to Novorossiysk is 5000-5500 USD , approximate transit time is 45-50 days (port to port)
  • The April schedule will be available in mid-March.
Forecast:
  • The situation with sufficient availability of places will stabilize in April
  • Tariffs will continue to decline
  • Wellgo also expects the import / export sector to be impacted by the Middle East conflict.
Port news:
  • Due to low temperatures, the ice thickness in the Gulf of Finland has reached a record high in the past 15 years. Therefore, starting March 1, non-ice-class vessels may only proceed to the Big Port of St. Petersburg with dedicated icebreaker escort. Queues for port calls are already being reported, reaching up to five days, as icebreaker escort for each vessel takes approximately 12 hours on average. Nature’s own cold chain logistics parameters are not controlled by the shipping lines!
  • Against this backdrop, shipping lines serving the ports of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad have introduced an additional tariff surcharge of USD 200 per TEU, effective March 1, based on the vessels' ETA date. The surcharge is payable upon arrival at the destination port. This measure will last until at least mid-March, and in a worst-case scenario, until early April. Therefore, we can only hope for the onset of true spring warming as soon as possible.

Direct train service from Southeast Asia

Rail freight rates continue to rise due to a shortage of empty container equipment in China. Exports from Russia have fallen sharply during the holiday period, resulting in a delayed container rotation. Empty containers are still being reloaded from remote and often inconvenient locations, preventing rates from declining.

Queues are now beginning to be scaled back, including at stations with regular train schedules, such as Xi'an and Pinghunan.

Tariffs for March increased by an average of 200-300 USD per 40-inch container.
What you should pay attention to:
  • Most regular stations have a schedule until the end of March, but there is a possibility that plans for any of them will be reduced.
  • Bookings in early March, you should be prepared that the schedule and rates may change.
  • Seats on regular and express trains are available for the period after 15.03.2026
  • Express trains operate without significant delays. Their fares are $ 500-$600 higher than regular trains. Transit times from station to station are 14-16 days.
  • Approximate opening times for the main border crossings today:
Zabaikalsk – 5-14 days
Alashankou (Kazakhstan) – 5-7 days
Erlian (Mongolia) – 12-14 days
  • Currently, Kazakhstan is the best choice in terms of tariffs and transshipment speed, but the likelihood of inspections increases transit times. We remind you that this route is riskier for cargo from Groups 84 and 85, clothing, and dual-use goods.
  • In Zabaikalsk, there remains a risk of traffic jams due to the large number of containers passing through, but for now, operations continue as usual.
  • When choosing a route through Mongolia, it is worth considering the possibility of postponing the train's departure for up to 2 weeks due to the fact that a large number of internal trains are scheduled from the Mongolian side, and the capacity of the border crossing is limited.
  • The most stable routes (with minimal delays in trains leaving China) are currently:
In the South: Datian and Pinghunan via Zabaikalsk
In the East: Suzhou , Hefei and Yiwu via Zabaikalsk
In the North: Jinan via Zabaikalsk, and Zhengzhou and Xi'an via Kazakhstan fixed before the New Year are not decreasing, the average level is now: 6900-7800 USD
  • Estimated transit times - unchanged since February: 27-29 days (station to station)
  • Please note that weather conditions in Moscow may again impact processing speeds at railway terminals and container delivery from stations. Please keep an eye on the weather forecast and, when planning your shipments, allow 2-3 days for potential disruptions to road transport.
Forecast:
  • Until the end of March, tariffs for direct rail travel will remain at the current level, plus or minus 200-400 USD.
  • Demand for express trains will remain stable, as the service has proven its stability over the past four months.
  • Unfortunately, we can only expect a reduction in transit times and lower tariffs for regular services starting in April due to the aforementioned reduction in plans for difficulties at border crossings.

Multimodal transportation through the Far East

Currently, there is a shortage of capacity for departures in the first half of March on all major routes and ports from China to Vladivostok and Nakhodka. However, we are able to find targeted placement opportunities in the first half of March for specific cargo readiness dates. This shipping route is the most stable, with no significant disruptions over the past five months. Sea freight rates will likely remain at current levels until the end of March, but there is a possibility of an increase in railway rates for outbound shipments from Far Eastern ports due to an unscheduled indexation by Russian Railways, which takes effect on March 1.
What you should pay attention to:
  • Current waiting times for loading on the railway from Vladivostok and Nakhodka:
Moscow 7-10 days
St. Petersburg 10-12 days
Yekaterinburg 10-14 days
Novosibirsk 10-14 days
  • The best time to place a booking is two weeks before the desired departure date of the cargo from China.
  • Current operating tariff level (maintained since February):
2500 USD + 270,000 rubles (6000 USD )
  • Estimated transit times also remain unchanged from February:
35-40 days (port – station)
  • As with direct rail transport, delays in container delivery from railway terminals in Moscow are expected due to possible deterioration in weather conditions.
Forecast:
  • An unscheduled tariff indexation by Russian Railways in March will increase the cost of the railway portion by 5,000 rubles per container.
  • Since the load on the ports and terminals of the Far East is 50-60%, it is worth expecting that throughout 2026 this transportation route will create high competition for direct rail and sea transportation due to its attractive tariff, trying to attract more cargo.
  • Provided that the historically low season in April-May continues, we expect a reduction in the cost of the sea portion of the transportation.
  • WELLGO believe that new vessel calls to Southeast Asian ports with guaranteed volumes will be started, as carriers are interested in maintaining transportation volumes in the context of a reduction in the main cargo flows.
New services:
  • FESCO has added Cambodia to its container service network. A feeder river service to Phnom Penh has been added to the Vladivostok-Vietnam route. Transit time between Phnom Penh and Vladivostok will be 12 days.

Maritime services to other regions

UAE and India
Due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, reports have emerged of the closure of several seaports in this area, including Jebel Ali, and there are reports of a possible complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. WELLGO specialists are closely monitoring the situation.
Export from Russia
From St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk, there are currently no seats available on export routes to India and China until early May, as are the schedules for May. A small number of seats remain for North African and Middle Eastern countries, but specific requests should be made quickly. In general, when planning export shipments, it's essential to check availability well in advance to ensure the carrier and our agent guarantee availability.

China

The holiday weekend in China ended on February 23. However, business activity has not yet returned to normal levels; a significant portion of employees are still on leave, and production is not scheduled to resume until early March.

Due to continued low load factors, air freight rates in the ninth week were extremely attractive. Passenger airlines, experiencing a shortage of cargo capacity, offered rates half those of the pre-New Year period.

Due to low demand, cargo airlines have canceled flights en masse until mid-March. Sichuan Airlines (3U) is the exception, continuing to operate cargo flights between TFU and SVO three times a week.

The average tariff level for cargo over 1000 kg at the end of February is:
  • Regular passenger flights: 15-20 CNY/kg depending on cargo density
  • Regular cargo flights: from 15 CNY/kg , flights will resume on March 11
As production activity resumes, transportation volumes will gradually increase in early March, which could lead to higher tariffs.
What you need to know:
Russian cargo airlines will not operate flights until mid-March.

Under current conditions, the TIR-truck service is the optimal alternative for transporting large consignments and oversized cargo . This service delivers consolidated cargo by direct road transport from China to Sheremetyevo Airport (SVO-2) with a transit time of 10-12 days (terminal-to-terminal) .

Thirteen truck departures are scheduled for March. Book your shipment early!

Turkey

The situation on the Türkiye-Russia route remains stable for now, but we expect an increase in airfares and a possible shortage of capacity due to the cancellation of flights by Middle Eastern air carriers and the redistribution of cargo flows to the Turkish route.
The volume of available cargo capacity remains directly linked to seasonal factors. During the winter months, a decline in tourist traffic leads to a reduction in the number of passenger flights, which in turn reduces available cargo capacity.

During the current low season, the ability to ship palletized cargo via direct flights is limited.

These are the available solutions for cargo delivery on the Istanbul-Moscow route:
Direct flights:
• Aeroflot ( SU ), Southwind ( S2 ) - narrow-body aircraft. Option for small, urgent cargo shipments. Dimension restrictions: 120 x 100 x 75 cm, up to 100 kg per piece.
• Turkish Airlines ( TK ) - wide-body aircraft. Option for non-restricted cargo.
Transit flights:
  • Turkmenistan Airlines ( T 5) - wide-body aircraft with good frequency on the IST - ASB leg , but with a flight once a week on the second leg ASB - SVO . There are no restrictions on the range of goods.
  • Azerbaijan Airlines ( J 2), Uzbekistan Airways ( HY ) - wide-body aircraft. Not all cargo types are accepted for carriage.
The current fare level depends on the aircraft type, airline and route.
Tariffs for direct flights Istanbul-Moscow are at the level of 2.8-3.2 USD /kg.
Tariffs for transit flights are within 3.6-3.6 USD /kg.

With direct wide-body flights limited during the low tourist season, transit routes are effectively the only solution for shipping large consignments of cargo.

At the same time, the transit time for carriers such as Turkmenistan Airlines , can take up to 15 days due to high flight loads and less than optimal features of transit airports.

A new transit solution has emerged as an alternative: flights with the Chinese airline Sichuan Airlines (3U), which operates both passenger and scheduled cargo flights to Russia.

WELLGO continuously monitors the air freight market in search of optimal solutions to ensure stable and timely deliveries.

United Arab Emirates

All flights to Dubai are currently cancelled. We are monitoring the situation and will keep you informed of any changes.

India

Currently, the air transport market from India to Russia continues to experience a shortage of transport capacity. Due to the cancellation of flights via the Middle East, we expect possible price increases on alternative routes and capacity shortages.
An additional pressure factor in February was the cancellation of Volga-Dnepr Airlines' direct flight from Mumbai. There is currently no information regarding the program's resumption. Despite operating only once a week, the flight was reliable and played a vital role in transporting large shipments, oversized cargo, and hazardous cargo classified as CAO. Transit routes remain an alternative, but access to some of them is limited, restricting the actual choice of available options.
The main solutions from India now are:
• SU ) direct flights from Delhi to Moscow and Goa to Moscow are a reliable option with a stable schedule. Daily departures from Delhi and three weekly departures from Goa. Fare level +1000 kg: USD 3.5-3.7 /kg.
• Transit flights (VN, 3U, ET) - The most cost-effective solutions through Asian countries. Rate level +1000 kg: USD 2.2-3.8 /kg depending on the route.
On February 11, 2026, the official launch of international cargo transportation under the agreement on the use of navigation seals in the EAEU countries took place. The corresponding decision was made by the Eurasian Economic Commission.

Sanctioned goods, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products transported by road and rail in accordance with the procedure for customs transit, export, and mutual trade, as well as road transport of light industry products and electronics under customs transit, are subject to tracking.

China

After the holidays, the cost of road transport will not decrease. A slight price reduction is possible by the end of March.

The current rate Shanghai – Moscow via Kazakhstan is 10,000 – 11,000 USD/TS, via Manchuria – 14,000 – 15,000 USD/TS.

What you need to know:
  • When transporting goods through Kazakhstan, transit times are completely at the mercy of the weather. Weather conditions cause road closures, especially on the Usharal-Dostyk section, which leads to the largest crossing between China and Kazakhstan.
  • Chinese customs have strengthened export controls on dual-use goods. Manufacturers should be prepared to request additional documentation.
  • As with rail routes, certain categories of goods transported by road remain at risk of inspection in Kazakhstan: equipment, spare parts, and clothing. These goods are best transported via the Manzhouli-Kazakhstan border crossing.
Current information on entry slots for border warehouses in China:
  • Bakhty/ Tacheng - no queue
  • Alashankou/Dostyk - free slots available for 10 days
  • Zimunai / Maykapchigai - no queues, closed Sunday
  • Khorgos/Nur Zholy - no free slots for 3-4 weeks in advance, paid reservations for the next day
Entry into Manchuria must be booked at least 10 days in advance; border crossing takes 1-2 days.

Europe

The situation with shipments from Europe is currently stable, with no significant changes. There are no queues at existing borders.

What you need to know:
  • Demand for refrigerated semi-trailers remains high. Planning your transport in advance is essential.
  • For reference, the current rate Germany – Moscow for an awning is 6000 EUR/TS, Italy – Moscow for a refrigerated truck is 8000 EUR/TS.
We studied the latest Global International Shipping Market Review from our colleagues at DHL Global Forwarding.

Here are some interesting observations and conclusions:
  • The potential return of carriers to the Suez Canal is likely to boost shipping between Asia and Europe.
  • Prices in the European-Asian direction are declining, but a rebound is possible due to increased solar panel exports from China ahead of the VAT increase in April 2026.
  • Capacity expansion will remain limited: fleet growth is expected to be only 3% in 2026, significantly below the historical average of 6%. Effective throughput will also remain low due to two years of port congestion and the continued bypass of the Suez Canal. From 2027 onward, the market will be primarily impacted by carrier congestion.
  • Demand in Latin American countries remains weak due to a complete lack of inventory and sluggish purchasing activity; attempts to raise rates have failed, and they continue to decline.
  • Trade growth in 2026 is expected to be modest at 1.8%, with low volumes in Brazil and Mexico; vessel utilisation is around 80%, and empty sailings are expected to increase after the Chinese New Year.
  • Price volatility is likely to persist into 2026, barring further geopolitical upheaval, with trade routes shifting as global demand shifts towards secondary destinations .
According to Forbes Woman, men and women working in logistics are roughly equally represented. A 2025 study by Moscow Exchange experts based on issuer data showed that women account for 45% of employees in this sector. Similar data from Rosstat for 2023 indicates 33%. The growth is clear. And at the WELLGO group of companies, women account for a whopping 64%!

What's all this about? Here's the point: on the eve of our favorite holiday, International Women's Day, Natalia Bochkova, founder and CEO of WELLGO, on behalf of the entire team, congratulates all women on this holiday, wishes them more smiles, experience positive emotions from their work, and may their efforts always be rewarded with success!