Executive Summary: Adapting to Russia Transit Dynamics & Global Supply Chains
During July 2026, domestic fuel availability in Russia remained a primary operational factor affecting road transport routes. Regional restrictions on petrol and diesel sales created sporadic supply disruptions at various fuel stations. Despite these operational hurdles, most road carriers adapted by revising routing strategies and adjusting refuelling schedules.
Geopolitical factors continue to impact international supply chain stability, elevating risks related to transit delays and cargo security. However, integrated transport solutions to Russia maintain sufficient market capacity.
Air freight remains the most stable, predictable transport sector for service reliability and risk management.
Geopolitical factors continue to impact international supply chain stability, elevating risks related to transit delays and cargo security. However, integrated transport solutions to Russia maintain sufficient market capacity.
Air freight remains the most stable, predictable transport sector for service reliability and risk management.
Container Shipments
Air Freight
Road Freight
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
- Direct Sea Freight: Southeast Asia to Russia
- Direct Rail Freight: Southeast Asia to Russia & Transit Hubs
- Multimodal Freight via the Far East
- Ocean Freight Services to Other Regions
Air Freight
Road Freight
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Direct Sea Freight: Southeast Asia to Russia
Container throughput at the ports of St Petersburg and Novorossiysk experienced continued declines as cargo owners increasingly favoured overland alternatives. FESCO confirmed its Northern Sea Route (NSR) schedule for August, featuring one direct vessel heading to St Petersburg.
At present, there is no clear information on how the incident involving the FESCO vessel in the Black Sea may affect maritime routes, and our current market review does not yet include any firm forecasts. In our view, the most likely consequences are a redistribution of cargo flows between different modes of transport, a shift of part of the volumes to routes via the Russian Far East, and an increase in the share of rail and road transportation. We also expect changes in the cargo insurance market, together with a general increase in transportation-related costs.
Overall, the incident is likely to reinforce the trends that have already been developing on this route over the past several months.
Overall, the incident is likely to reinforce the trends that have already been developing on this route over the past several months.
Maritime Freight Rates & Transit Times
Maritime Market Forecast:
Tariffs are expected to increase through late August due to rising container equipment rental costs. Multimodal routes through the Far East will maintain higher demand due to superior pricing and transit schedules.
Direct Rail Freight: Southeast Asia to Russia & Transit Hubs
Border congestion persists at key rail gateways. A backlog exceeding 1,000 containers at Zabaikalsk has resulted in wait times of up to 21 days for individual container transshipment. While express trains experience transshipment delays of up to 7 days, they remain a dependable solution.
Consequently, demand has surged for express rail options via Mongolia (departing weekly on Thursdays to Elektrougli station, taking 18–20 days). Transit via Kazakhstan continues to operate normally. Average tariff level for August is 8900 - 9300 USD (station-to-station) with estimated transit time for regular services: 32–35 days (station to station), excluding any delays in train departures from stations in China.
Consequently, demand has surged for express rail options via Mongolia (departing weekly on Thursdays to Elektrougli station, taking 18–20 days). Transit via Kazakhstan continues to operate normally. Average tariff level for August is 8900 - 9300 USD (station-to-station) with estimated transit time for regular services: 32–35 days (station to station), excluding any delays in train departures from stations in China.
- Key Rail Hubs: For optimal departure stability, prioritize Xi'an, Pinghunan, and Changsha stations.
- Outlook & Predictions: September freight rates are projected to increase following early tariff indexation by Russian Railways.
Multimodal Freight via the Far East
High demand at Vladivostok and Nakhodka ports caused processing and rail-loading delays in late July. A severe shortage of container equipment in China, combined with reduced export flows from Russia, has created an unusual market dynamic: equipment owners are currently offering compensation of up to $1,800 USD for container equipment released in Moscow for return delivery to major Chinese ports.
Tariff level (August 2026): $8,600 – $8,800 USD.
Railway loading waiting times (from Vladivostok & Nakhodka):
Railway loading waiting times (from Vladivostok & Nakhodka):
- Moscow: 10 – 12 days
- St. Petersburg: 12 – 14 days
- Yekaterinburg: 12 – 15 days
- Novosibirsk: 12 – 15 days
Far East Forecast:
- With the gradual increase in imports to Russia, container equipment availability in China is expected to become tighter over the coming months. Accordingly, the freight rates are expected to increase further.
- In July, Russian Railways (RZD) announced an 8.5% tariff indexation effective from October 1. As a result, rail freight rates are also expected to continue rising.
Ocean Freight Services to Other Regions
India
- High overbooking reported
- Most shipping lines are currently offering space for September only
- Single-container bookings remain available on request
Türkiye
Average tariff level from main Turkish ports
- 1700 USD / 20DC
- 1900 USD / 40HC
United Arab Emirates
As of today, there have been no changes on this route. All market participants are aware of the risks, closely monitoring the news, and waiting to see how the situation develops
China
Following a calm summer low season in early July, air freight rates began rising in late July. Increased passenger travel reduced belly-hold capacity, while total air cargo capacity dropped 11.7% year-on-year (a reduction of 1,354 tonnes).
The situation has also been affected by fuel supply disruptions, which resulted in a reduction in the frequency of cargo flights on key routes via Guangzhou (CGO) and Urumqi (URC). Certain routes are also experiencing particularly high utilization. For example, a significant backlog of shipments has developed on the Shanghai (PVG) – St. Petersburg (LED) route due to limited space availability.
The increase in transportation costs is already noticeable on passenger flights: starting from Week 30, rates increased by approximately RMB 2–3 per kilogram. At the same time, rates for cargo flights remain relatively stable for now.
Rates are expected to climb further through late August.
The situation has also been affected by fuel supply disruptions, which resulted in a reduction in the frequency of cargo flights on key routes via Guangzhou (CGO) and Urumqi (URC). Certain routes are also experiencing particularly high utilization. For example, a significant backlog of shipments has developed on the Shanghai (PVG) – St. Petersburg (LED) route due to limited space availability.
The increase in transportation costs is already noticeable on passenger flights: starting from Week 30, rates increased by approximately RMB 2–3 per kilogram. At the same time, rates for cargo flights remain relatively stable for now.
Rates are expected to climb further through late August.
- Regulatory Compliance Alert: Customs authorities in China have intensified export controls on industrial machinery under HS Codes 8454–8465 (including machine tools and laser systems), dual-use items, hazardous goods, and battery products. Pre-check technical documentation to prevent transit delays.
Turkey
The air freight market between Turkey and Russia remains stable in August. There are no significant changes in rate levels observed, while available capacity remains sufficient to meet current demand.
One of the key factors supporting this stability is the high frequency of direct air services between Turkey and Russia. A large number of flights operated by different airlines helps maintain sufficient capacity and provides flexibility in selecting the most suitable solutions for different types of cargo.
Unlike last year, Aeroflot continues to operate flights to Antalya using narrow-body aircraft during the current season. Nevertheless, the existing level of available capacity remains sufficient to meet market demand, allowing rates to stay stable without significant upward pressure.
Southwind Airlines operates wide-body aircraft out of Antalya for heavy and palletized freight.
One of the key factors supporting this stability is the high frequency of direct air services between Turkey and Russia. A large number of flights operated by different airlines helps maintain sufficient capacity and provides flexibility in selecting the most suitable solutions for different types of cargo.
Unlike last year, Aeroflot continues to operate flights to Antalya using narrow-body aircraft during the current season. Nevertheless, the existing level of available capacity remains sufficient to meet market demand, allowing rates to stay stable without significant upward pressure.
Southwind Airlines operates wide-body aircraft out of Antalya for heavy and palletized freight.
- Rates are stable and start from 1,9 USD/kg.
UAE
During the current period, the air freight market between the UAE and Russia remains stable. Despite the continuing geopolitical uncertainty in the region, the main airports in the UAE are operating as normal.
A range of alternative transportation options remains available. Russian passenger airlines operate regular daily flights using narrow-body aircraft, providing capacity for urgent and smaller shipments. In addition, charter cargo flights are available approximately once a week, allowing for the transportation of larger-volume and heavier shipments.
Where required, transit options are also available via alternative routes, including Uzbekistan, Thailand, Malé and other hubs. This makes it possible to select the most suitable solution depending on cargo characteristics, transit time requirements and transportation budget.
A range of alternative transportation options remains available. Russian passenger airlines operate regular daily flights using narrow-body aircraft, providing capacity for urgent and smaller shipments. In addition, charter cargo flights are available approximately once a week, allowing for the transportation of larger-volume and heavier shipments.
Where required, transit options are also available via alternative routes, including Uzbekistan, Thailand, Malé and other hubs. This makes it possible to select the most suitable solution depending on cargo characteristics, transit time requirements and transportation budget.
Available Services
India
The air freight market between India and Russia continues to follow the same general trend. At present, direct cargo capacity on the route remains limited: following the suspension of Volga-Dnepr’s regular program from Mumbai, there is still no stable weekly freighter service.
Individual cargo flights continue to operate, but mainly as charter programs arranged for specific projects or market requirements. A regular weekly freighter service remains in demand and, according to available market information, there are expectations that Volga-Dnepr may resume regular cargo operations in the foreseeable future.
For most shipments, transit routes via hubs in Asia and the Middle East are used. The optimal solution depends on cargo characteristics, weight and dimensions, transit time requirements and any commodity-related restrictions. At the same time, Aeroflot’s direct passenger flights from Delhi continue to play an important role in supporting available capacity on the route.
The date for the resumption of Aeroflot’s direct flights from Moscow to Goa has also been announced — October 3. This will provide additional options for transporting small and urgent shipments on this route.
Direct air connectivity between India and Russia continues to be supported by regular Aeroflot services, while a wide range of transit solutions via Asian and Middle Eastern carriers is also available. The optimal routing is selected depending on the commodity, weight and dimensions, as well as the required transit time.
Individual cargo flights continue to operate, but mainly as charter programs arranged for specific projects or market requirements. A regular weekly freighter service remains in demand and, according to available market information, there are expectations that Volga-Dnepr may resume regular cargo operations in the foreseeable future.
For most shipments, transit routes via hubs in Asia and the Middle East are used. The optimal solution depends on cargo characteristics, weight and dimensions, transit time requirements and any commodity-related restrictions. At the same time, Aeroflot’s direct passenger flights from Delhi continue to play an important role in supporting available capacity on the route.
The date for the resumption of Aeroflot’s direct flights from Moscow to Goa has also been announced — October 3. This will provide additional options for transporting small and urgent shipments on this route.
Direct air connectivity between India and Russia continues to be supported by regular Aeroflot services, while a wide range of transit solutions via Asian and Middle Eastern carriers is also available. The optimal routing is selected depending on the commodity, weight and dimensions, as well as the required transit time.
Available Services
1. Direct Aeroflot (SU) flights — Delhi to Moscow
2. Transit solutions via Asian and Middle Eastern hubs
Options are available with a number of regional carriers, including:
These routes make it possible to select the most suitable solution depending on transit time, cost and cargo characteristics.
Rate Levels
Average rates for shipments of 1,000+ kg currently start from approximately USD 4.0/kg, depending on the selected route, airline, aircraft type, available capacity and cargo characteristics.
Recommendations
Given the limited availability of direct freighter services for large shipments, transportation should be planned in advance.
- daily direct flights;
- the fastest transportation option;
- suitable for urgent and standard cargo;
- available cargo capacity is limited by passenger and baggage load.
2. Transit solutions via Asian and Middle Eastern hubs
Options are available with a number of regional carriers, including:
- Uzbekistan Airways (HY);
- Ethiopian Airlines (ET);
- Turkish Airlines (TK);
- Oman Air (WY);
- Azerbaijan Airlines (J2);
- Vietnam Airlines (VN);
- Sichuan Airlines (3U).
These routes make it possible to select the most suitable solution depending on transit time, cost and cargo characteristics.
Rate Levels
Average rates for shipments of 1,000+ kg currently start from approximately USD 4.0/kg, depending on the selected route, airline, aircraft type, available capacity and cargo characteristics.
Recommendations
Given the limited availability of direct freighter services for large shipments, transportation should be planned in advance.
- For cargo with special requirements, available transportation options should be assessed well in advance, including transit routings and alternative carrier services.Infrastructure operating normally despite Middle East tensions.
- Direct Carriers (Emirates / Etihad / Flydubai): Stable schedules for non-restricted goods.
- Cargo Charters: From 7.5 USD/kg | Best for large, heavy, or specialized lots.
- Transit Alternatives: Via Male/Phuket/Bangkok (from 7.0 USD/kg) or Uzbekistan Airways via Tashkent (from 5.5 USD/kg).
The most challenging situation continues to be observed in the Zabaykalsky Krai. To mitigate the risks associated with fuel shortages, carriers are making maximum use of refueling opportunities in Manzhouli. In most cases, the fuel reserve obtained there is sufficient to reach Omsk or Tyumen.
At the same time, the road freight market is increasingly shifting toward alternative routes via Mongolia and Kazakhstan. This helps diversify logistics chains and reduce the risk of transit delays on the most congested routes.
Against the background of ongoing fuel-related constraints, international road freight rates from China have been increasing since July. According to market participants, tariffs rose by approximately 15–25% compared with June. The main drivers were strong seasonal demand, limited truck availability, higher operating costs for carriers, and continued fuel supply difficulties on certain sections of the routes.
One of the key developments in July was the announcement of the second stage of implementation of the Agreement on the Use of Navigation Seals within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), effective from July 31, 2026, for road transportation of goods from China to Russia and Belarus in transit through Kazakhstan.
The new requirements are intended to strengthen control over transit shipments within the EAEU. However, during the initial implementation stage, market participants expect longer processing times and additional operating costs.
At the same time, the road freight market is increasingly shifting toward alternative routes via Mongolia and Kazakhstan. This helps diversify logistics chains and reduce the risk of transit delays on the most congested routes.
Against the background of ongoing fuel-related constraints, international road freight rates from China have been increasing since July. According to market participants, tariffs rose by approximately 15–25% compared with June. The main drivers were strong seasonal demand, limited truck availability, higher operating costs for carriers, and continued fuel supply difficulties on certain sections of the routes.
One of the key developments in July was the announcement of the second stage of implementation of the Agreement on the Use of Navigation Seals within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), effective from July 31, 2026, for road transportation of goods from China to Russia and Belarus in transit through Kazakhstan.
The new requirements are intended to strengthen control over transit shipments within the EAEU. However, during the initial implementation stage, market participants expect longer processing times and additional operating costs.
China
The Manzhouli – Zabaykalsk road border crossing remains the most heavily used route for cargo transportation from China to Russia.
Due to the high traffic intensity on the Chinese side, there continues to be a shortage of available slots for semi-trailer swaps, with waiting times reaching 14–20 days.
Record numbers of trucks are also being reported at the Zabaykalsk border crossing. As a result, some vehicles are forced to wait for their turn at parking areas in nearby settlements. This increases overall transit times and logistics costs.
Congestion at the border crossing, limited truck availability and the fuel situation have contributed to a further increase in freight rates.
Due to the high traffic intensity on the Chinese side, there continues to be a shortage of available slots for semi-trailer swaps, with waiting times reaching 14–20 days.
Record numbers of trucks are also being reported at the Zabaykalsk border crossing. As a result, some vehicles are forced to wait for their turn at parking areas in nearby settlements. This increases overall transit times and logistics costs.
Congestion at the border crossing, limited truck availability and the fuel situation have contributed to a further increase in freight rates.
Current Shanghai – Moscow rates
Due to congestion at the Russia–China border, an increasing number of carriers are switching to routes via Kazakhstan. However, the growing demand has already resulted in significantly higher pressure on Kazakhstan border crossings.
Current slot availability for entry to border warehouses in China
- Alashankou / Dostyk — waiting time for a free slot is approximately 3–4 weeks; paid slots are available within 5–7 days.
- Bakhty / Tacheng — free slots are available in approximately 15–20 days.
- Jimunai / Maikapchagai — free slots are available within 5–10 days; Sunday is a non-working day on the Chinese side.
- Khorgos / Nur Zholy — currently the most congested border crossing. No free slots are available for the next month, while paid slot reservations are available in approximately two weeks.
Key points to consider
- No significant improvement in the road freight situation is expected in August. Road transportation should therefore be planned taking all major risk factors into account.
- The risk of cargo inspections in Kazakhstan has increased. Inspections are selective, but certain categories of goods, primarily electronics and consumer goods, are subject to stricter controls. In some cases, waiting times for inspection may extend to several weeks or potentially even months.
- Chinese customs authorities have strengthened export controls for dual-use goods. Additional documentation from manufacturers may be requested.
Europe
In July, European manufacturers traditionally increased export shipments ahead of the summer holiday period. This resulted in stronger demand for international road freight services, higher utilization of transport companies and a moderate increase in rates on certain routes.
At the same time, the availability of trucks for urgent shipments remains limited.
There are currently no queues at the operating border crossings.
At the same time, the availability of trucks for urgent shipments remains limited.
There are currently no queues at the operating border crossings.
Key points to consider
- It is advisable to have a complete set of supporting documents available for border clearance, including the contract, payment documents and a letter from the shipper confirming that the cargo is not classified as dual-use goods. This is particularly important for cargo destined for third countries and may help avoid truck detention and cancellation of export declarations.
- As a market reference, the current rate for a curtain-side truck from Germany to Moscow is approximately EUR 5,000 per truck, while the current rate for a reefer truck from Italy to Moscow is approximately EUR 8,500 per truck.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What are the main causes of shipping delays between China and Russia in August 2026?
Delays are primarily caused by border congestion at key railway points like Zabaikalsk, severe slot shortages for semi-trailers at road crossings, and heightened customs inspections for industrial equipment under HS Codes 8454–8465.
How are fuel shortages affecting road freight routes in Russia?
Fuel supply restrictions in specific regions have forced hauliers to optimise refuelling stops. Drivers entering from Manchuria are filling tanks to capacity, which typically provides sufficient fuel to reach Omsk or Tyumen. Other carriers are shifting transit routes through Kazakhstan and Mongolia to bypass affected zones.
What is the fastest freight option from China to Moscow?
Express passenger (PAX) air freight offers the fastest transit time, with rates ranging from 2.5 to 30 CNY/kg depending on cargo weight and volume. For larger shipments, Truckload/Less-than-Truckload (TL/LTL) road services via consolidation warehouses take an average of 10–13 days.
Are there new compliance requirements for road transit within the EAEU?
Yes. Effective 31st July 2026, the second phase of the Agreement on the Application of Navigation Seals came into effect for transit freight moving from China to Russia and Belarus via Kazakhstan. Customers should budget for additional administrative procedures and potential initial clearance delays.
What are the average sea freight rates from India to Russian ports?
As of August 2026, sea freight rates from Nhava Sheva or Mundra to St Petersburg average $5,600 USD for a 20ft DC and $7,700 USD for a 40ft HC. Rates to Novorossiysk average $4,400 USD for a 20ft DC and $5,900 USD for a 40ft HC.
Looking Ahead
Logistics operators are preparing for significant legislative updates regarding Russian freight forwarding and supply chain laws taking effect on 1st September 2026. Stay tuned for our comprehensive legal and operational compliance breakdown in next month's update. After all, September 1st is Knowledge Day!
As usual, our team remains at your disposal for all of your Supply Chain, Logistics and Transport enquiries. Use the enquiry form or call us for your optimal transport solutions.
Delays are primarily caused by border congestion at key railway points like Zabaikalsk, severe slot shortages for semi-trailers at road crossings, and heightened customs inspections for industrial equipment under HS Codes 8454–8465.
How are fuel shortages affecting road freight routes in Russia?
Fuel supply restrictions in specific regions have forced hauliers to optimise refuelling stops. Drivers entering from Manchuria are filling tanks to capacity, which typically provides sufficient fuel to reach Omsk or Tyumen. Other carriers are shifting transit routes through Kazakhstan and Mongolia to bypass affected zones.
What is the fastest freight option from China to Moscow?
Express passenger (PAX) air freight offers the fastest transit time, with rates ranging from 2.5 to 30 CNY/kg depending on cargo weight and volume. For larger shipments, Truckload/Less-than-Truckload (TL/LTL) road services via consolidation warehouses take an average of 10–13 days.
Are there new compliance requirements for road transit within the EAEU?
Yes. Effective 31st July 2026, the second phase of the Agreement on the Application of Navigation Seals came into effect for transit freight moving from China to Russia and Belarus via Kazakhstan. Customers should budget for additional administrative procedures and potential initial clearance delays.
What are the average sea freight rates from India to Russian ports?
As of August 2026, sea freight rates from Nhava Sheva or Mundra to St Petersburg average $5,600 USD for a 20ft DC and $7,700 USD for a 40ft HC. Rates to Novorossiysk average $4,400 USD for a 20ft DC and $5,900 USD for a 40ft HC.
Looking Ahead
Logistics operators are preparing for significant legislative updates regarding Russian freight forwarding and supply chain laws taking effect on 1st September 2026. Stay tuned for our comprehensive legal and operational compliance breakdown in next month's update. After all, September 1st is Knowledge Day!
As usual, our team remains at your disposal for all of your Supply Chain, Logistics and Transport enquiries. Use the enquiry form or call us for your optimal transport solutions.
We welcome your comments, feedback, or any specific Logistics, Transportation, and Supply Chain inquiries.
Please share your requests via the dedicated form on our website or reach out to our team directly, to lock in current rates or analyse your specific Trade Lane:
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- Email: info@wellgo.ru
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