Transport Logistics Market Update: September 2026

As of 1 September, document exchange between cargo owners, carriers and freight forwarders is conducted via dedicated electronic platforms. Electronic forwarding instructions, receipts and transport waybills are becoming mandatory. Any doubts about whether the system would actually go live have now been dispelled.

However, analysts estimate that the majority of road freight carriers are not yet ready for the transition to digital documentation. According to an analysis conducted by the Carriers Association and the ATI.SU logistics platform, as of the end of August, only 9.8% of carriers had obtained a qualified electronic signature (QES), which is required for signing documents electronically. This represents approximately 11,500 out of 119,000 registered carriers.

Among logistics companies, 22.6% have a QES, compared with 11.3% of individual entrepreneurs. Among freight forwarders registered on the ATI.SU platform, only 22.2% have obtained a digital signature, while the figure for cargo owners stands at 16.1%.

At present, the Russian Ministry of Transport supports a proposal to introduce a grace period during which no fines would be imposed for road transportation without electronic transport documents (ETDs). Under the proposed approach, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Rostransnadzor would issue verbal warnings instead of fines for the absence of ETDs.

However, there is still no clear procedure governing interaction between market participants and regulatory authorities. Importantly, the absence of a fine does not exempt carriers and freight forwarders from the obligation to issue ETDs.

NAO TRADE LLC (WELLGO) was registered in the official freight forwarders’ register under No. GL-B044-00112-00/00009498 dated 30 April 2026. All employees responsible for interaction with counterparties have obtained qualified electronic signatures and completed training on working with electronic transport documents.

And now, let us move on to the latest logistics market news and forecasts for September.

Against the backdrop of escalating challenges affecting commercial shipping in the Black Sea region, deep-sea logistics will continue to adjust in September.

Acceptance of bookings from China to Novorossiysk has been suspended until further notice from shipping lines. The status of cargo already en route to Novorossiysk remains unclear. Most likely, these shipments will be redirected to the Port of Saint Petersburg.

As for Black Sea services, FESCO, Akkon, M-Line and MSC have currently suspended their services to Novorossiysk. Silmar is expected to join this list shortly and has already announced that its vessel Inter Sydney will call at Saint Petersburg for discharge on its next voyage.

The situation on routes to Saint Petersburg remains stable. In September, eight sailings are scheduled via the Suez Canal and three via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), operated by Torgmoll, HUAXIN and OVP.

No further schedules for services via the NSR have been announced. In practice, navigation will soon be suspended due to weather conditions.

Therefore, it is important to take into account that the approaching end of the NSR navigation season, combined with the effective suspension of sailings to Novorossiysk, will redistribute cargo flows and increase transshipment volumes through the Russian Far East.

The situation at Zabaikalsk continues to deteriorate, with terminals facing severe congestion. Border-crossing times are increasing and may reach 30 days.

China Railway is redirecting planned routes from Zabaikalsk to Erenhot. This is happening across major departure stations, including Xi’an, Pinghunan, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Datian and others. Express trains are also currently being rerouted from Zabaikalsk via Mongolia, as transshipment operations there remain faster.

Border-crossing times via Kazakhstan remain relatively favorable. However, the risk of customs inspections — and therefore unpredictable delays — remains. Shipments of goods falling under HS Chapters 84–90 are currently not recommended via this route.

• Due to congestion at Zabaikalsk, departure delays at Chinese stations currently reach 10–14 days at major stations and up to 30 days at smaller stations.
• Space still needs to be booked approximately two weeks before the required departure date.
• The priority route is currently via Erenhot.
• An expedited rail service via Erenhot has been launched, offering transit times of 19–21 days station-to-station.
• Average September rates have increased again and currently stand at approximately USD 10,000–10,200 station-to-station.

Current border-crossing times at the main gateways:

• Zabaikalsk: approximately 21–30 days
• Alashankou (Kazakhstan): approximately 7–10 days
• Erenhot (Mongolia): approximately 7–10 days

Estimated transit times for regular services, excluding departure-station and border-crossing delays:

• Zabaikalsk: 28–30 days station-to-station
• Kazakhstan: 22–24 days station-to-station
• Erenhot: 25–28 days station-to-station

Moscow terminals continue to receive containers as normal. Shipments should be planned in advance due to the upcoming holidays in China on 25–27 September and 1–7 October

Further rate increases are expected due to:

• shortages of container equipment;
• reductions in train allocations by China Railway;
• the beginning of the peak shipping season.

The rerouting of services from Zabaikalsk to Erenhot may eventually reduce congestion at Zabaikalsk. However, this is unlikely to happen before the end of the October holiday period in China.

The sharp increase in ocean freight rates seen over the past several months has temporarily slowed.

In August, carriers either introduced selective increases for specific ports or extended rates from previous months. Space shortages remain localized. Some shipping lines, including Logoper and FESCO, are already overbooked for the first weeks of September, while several other carriers still have space available for the first half of the month.

However, the peak season is approaching and rates are expected to start increasing again.

There are currently difficulties with ocean container departures from Shanghai. Transport infrastructure facilities were damaged as a result of Typhoon Dolphin, causing vessel departure delays and disruptions to the repositioning of empty equipment.

With another typhoon, Saudel, expected to affect Shanghai in the coming days, the transportation situation is likely to deteriorate further.

Container handling at terminals in the Russian Far East continues as normal. Average waiting times for loading onto rail have increased, but there are currently no systemic delays. The situation is also being supported by an increase in allocations for transporting containers in open-top railcars from the Far East to central regions of Russia amid a shortage of fitting platforms.

• Shipment delays from the Port of Shanghai due to weather conditions.
• There is a shortage of 20DC containers in China, particularly in southern regions, although it is not yet widespread.
• Rates for the rail leg are expected to continue increasing in September–October by approximately: RUB 10,000–15,000 per 40’ container, RUB 5,000–10,000 per 20’ container
• No vessel queues are currently reported at Far Eastern ports.
• As of the last week of August, space availability for early September was better than in June and July, although the situation may change rapidly.
• To secure the earliest possible departure from China, bookings should be placed for weeks 35–36, taking into account the Chinese holidays in late September and early October.
• Average September rates currently stand at USD 8,400–8,600.

Current waiting times for rail loading from Vladivostok and Nakhodka:

• Moscow: 8–14 days
• Saint Petersburg: 14–16 days
• Yekaterinburg: 14–20 days
• Novosibirsk: 14–20 days

Estimated transit time: 40–45 days port-to-station. Moscow terminals continue to receive containers as normal.

• Major shipping lines, including Amesist, United, FESCO and others, are shifting routes from Novorossiysk to Saint Petersburg.
• Significant overbooking and delays.

Average August rates from major Turkish ports to Saint Petersburg:

• USD 4,200 / 20DC
• USD 7,200 / 40HC

There have been no significant changes on Middle East routes amid the continuing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Market participants remain reluctant to expose vessels or cargo to additional risks, while the cargo owners most affected by the situation have already established alternative routes, which we covered in previous editions of our Transport Update.

For the time being, no major changes are expected.

The air freight market from China to Russia remains extremely dynamic.

Rates continued to increase in August, while the market remains highly volatile and rate validity extremely short. Rates are adjusted almost daily and, under current market conditions, can effectively only be guaranteed at the time of booking.

Passenger-flight rates have already exceeded CNY 35/kg, while the nearest available space on certain routes has shifted to mid-September.

At the same time, there is a significant shortage of cargo capacity, particularly on CAO flights. Passenger services are also regularly affected by flight rollovers due to high utilization of available capacity.

The main factors affecting the market include:

• high passenger load factors, which significantly reduce available cargo capacity;
• a reduction in the number of regular cargo flights, including the suspension of 4B CGO and 4B LHW services and reduced capacity on 4B HRB in August;
• significant volumes of large shipments occupying a considerable share of available capacity on freighter aircraft;
• strong demand from e-commerce, including against the backdrop of recent incidents involving cargo losses at warehouses in Russia.

As a result, by mid-August there was virtually no available freighter capacity for large shipments.

We do not expect rates to decrease in September. On the contrary, there remains a risk of further rate increases and an even greater shortage of available capacity.

The approaching Chinese national holidays will place additional pressure on the market. China’s Golden Week will take place from 1 to 7 October. Many shippers will attempt to move their cargo before the holiday period begins, potentially creating an additional surge in demand and pressure on transport capacity already in September.

Under current market conditions, the TIR Truck LTL option is becoming particularly attractive as an alternative to air freight.

Our service continues to operate reliably, with truck departures almost every day. Given the current shortage of air freight capacity and rising rates, TIR Truck LTL provides a more predictable and cost-efficient transportation option for larger shipments.

The service is well suited for general cargo, including clothing and footwear, equipment, automotive spare parts and components, electronics and household appliances.

• Daily departures.
• Stable 9–12 day terminal-to-terminal transit time.
• Expedited border crossing.
• 2 + 2 days of free waiting time in the event of inspection in Manzhouli and at SVO2.
• Priority unloading at SVO2 — normally on the day of arrival or the following day.
• Ability to transport a large shipment as a single consignment without splitting it across several flights.
• More predictable capacity availability compared with the current air freight market.

TIR LTL is particularly suitable for large shipments that do not require urgent delivery.

Stable daily departures and a transit time of 9–12 days make it possible to plan shipments more reliably amid limited air freight capacity and high rates.

The air freight market between Türkiye and Russia remains stable, with no significant changes in rates or available capacity. Current supply is sufficient to meet existing demand without major restrictions, making the route relatively comfortable for advance planning.

The tourist season in Türkiye remains in full swing and is expected to continue for at least another couple of months. A sufficient number of scheduled flights and a broad network of airlines help maintain the required level of available capacity.

Another advantage of this trade lane is the wide range of direct and transit options. Depending on cargo characteristics, delivery-time requirements and budget, various transportation solutions can be selected — from direct flights out of Istanbul and Antalya to transit services via alternative hubs.

Overall, the Türkiye–Russia route remains one of the more predictable options for air freight, with available capacity and competitive rates.

Rate levels

Air freight rates remain stable. Average rates start from approximately USD 1.9/kg and depend on the selected carrier, aircraft type, route, shipment weight and volume, and cargo characteristics. The broad range of available options makes it possible to select transportation solutions flexibly depending on delivery-time requirements, budget and cargo specifications.

The UAE–Russia air freight market continues to operate without significant changes, and current capacity remains sufficient to meet demand. Regular air services between the two countries continue to operate, allowing for stable transportation of different cargo types and shipment volumes. One of the key advantages of the route remains the wide choice of direct carriers.

Passenger airlines operate regular flights using both narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, allowing transportation options to be selected according to shipment size and urgency. Freighter flights also remain available for larger and heavier shipments.

Starting from September, Pobeda provides an additional option for smaller consignments after resuming direct flights between Moscow and Dubai using narrow-body aircraft. This option is particularly suitable for boxed shipments that do not require palletization or significant cargo space. For large, heavy and palletized shipments, freighter services remain the preferred option.

Where required, transit routes via alternative hubs — including Tashkent, Malé, Bangkok and other destinations — can also be used.

Overall, current market conditions allow transportation routes and service types to be selected flexibly depending on cargo characteristics, required delivery times and budget.

Rate levels

The market continues to maintain stable rates. Indicative transportation costs are approximately USD 5.0/kg on passenger flights and USD 6.0/kg on freighter services. Special rate conditions may be available for larger shipments and certain volumes. The final rate depends on shipment weight and volume, the selected airline, routing and available capacity on the required date.

The air freight market between India and Russia remains generally stable.

However, direct cargo capacity remains limited: the regular Volga-Dnepr freighter programme from Mumbai has not yet resumed. Individual Volga-Dnepr cargo flights continue to operate on an ad hoc basis for specific projects and requests. However, there is still no stable weekly freighter programme.

The majority of shipments are currently transported on Aeroflot flights or via transit hubs in Asia and the Middle East. Various routing options are available, with the optimal solution depending on cargo characteristics, shipment weight and volume, transit-time requirements and possible commodity restrictions. Direct Aeroflot passenger flights from Delhi continue to provide additional capacity and remain the fastest option for cargo delivery.

Available services

1. Direct Aeroflot (SU) Delhi–Moscow flights

• Daily direct flights.
• One of the fastest transportation options.
• Suitable for urgent and sizeable cargo.
• Available cargo capacity depends on passenger load factors.

2. Transit solutions via hubs in Asia and the Middle East

Options are available through regional carriers including:

• Uzbekistan Airways (HY);
• Ethiopian Airlines (ET);
• Turkish Airlines (TK);
• Oman Air (WY);
• Azerbaijan Airlines (J2);
• Vietnam Airlines (VN);
• Sichuan Airlines (3U).

Transit routes make it possible to select the most appropriate solution depending on transit-time requirements, cost, cargo dimensions and weight, and commodity type.
3. Volga-Dnepr freighter services — AD HOC

• Non-scheduled freighter flights.
• Operated for specific projects and subject to confirmed demand.
• Suitable for large and heavy shipments.
• A regular weekly programme has not yet resumed.

Key points to consider

Temporary restrictions on the acceptance of Dangerous Goods (DG) are currently in place in India for a number of airlines. The DGCA — Directorate General of Civil Aviation — has required airlines to submit a new compliance letter confirming that they meet the applicable requirements for handling dangerous goods. Not all carriers have submitted this letter yet. As a result, the DGCA has temporarily restricted dangerous-goods handling for airlines that have not complied with the requirement. This may significantly affect the choice of airline and available routing options.

The WELLGO team continues to monitor the situation and check available solutions for each request in order to select suitable transportation options taking into account dangerous-goods requirements.

Rate levels

Average rates for shipments of 1,000+ kg start from approximately USD 4.0/kg and depend on the selected routing, airline, aircraft type, available capacity and cargo characteristics.

Recommendations

Despite the overall stability of the market, limited direct freighter capacity means shipments — particularly large consignments — should be planned in advance.

For cargo requiring special handling, particularly Dangerous Goods, we recommend checking whether the selected airline can accept the cargo and confirming the route before booking.

WELLGO continues to monitor market developments and select workable transportation options based on cargo characteristics and current airline capacity.

As of 1 September, controls on foreign carriers at the Russian border are being tightened.

The Russian Government has approved new rules under which trucks operated by foreign carriers will not be allowed to cross the state border in either direction if their owners have outstanding debts for toll roads or unpaid road-damage charges applicable to vehicles exceeding 12 tonnes.

Checks will be carried out using current data from the State Information System for State and Municipal Payments.

The long-awaited rules are intended to restore a more level competitive environment in the international road freight market, as foreign carriers — particularly Chinese operators — will no longer benefit from being able to exclude these costs from their transportation rates.

The Manzhouli–Zabaikalsk road border crossing remains the most heavily used and congested route for cargo transportation from China to Russia. There are currently continuing difficulties with booking entry slots into China. Entry into Manzhouli should be planned at least two weeks in advance. Record numbers of trucks are accumulating at the Zabaikalsk road border crossing, forcing some vehicles to wait at parking areas in nearby settlements. This increases total delivery times and logistics costs.

The slot situation is currently being further complicated by a shortage of road transportation permits for China–Russia operations via Manzhouli. At present, the available quotas have been fully exhausted and no additional permit forms have yet been issued. The Chinese side has reported that negotiations are underway with the relevant Russian authorities regarding an additional quota for the remainder of 2026. We expect additional permits to be issued during the first half of September. Congested border crossings, limited vehicle availability and the fuel situation continue to contribute to rising transportation rates.

Current indicative rates:

• Shanghai–Moscow via Kazakhstan: USD 13,000–14,000 per truck
• Shanghai–Moscow via Manzhouli: USD 15,000–17,000 per truck

On the Manzhouli → Zabaikalsk → Moscow route, the fuel situation is currently better than during the peak of the June–July crisis. However, risks remain for carriers, particularly on the Zabaikalsk → Chita → Irkutsk → Krasnoyarsk section.

Due to congestion at the Russia–China border and fuel-supply challenges, an increasing number of carriers are choosing routes via Kazakhstan. Growing demand has already resulted in a significant increase in traffic at Kazakhstan’s border crossings.

Current slot availability for entry to border warehouses in China:

• Alashankou / Dostyk: waiting time for a free slot is currently 3–4 weeks; paid slots are available within 5–7 days, with earlier options sometimes possible.
• Bakhty / Tacheng: free slots are available in 15–20 days; paid slots in 5–10 days.
• Jimunai / Maikapchigai: free slots are available within approximately 5 days; Sunday is a non-working day on the Chinese side.
• Khorgos / Nur Zholy: currently the most congested crossing. No free slots are available for approximately one month; paid slot bookings are available in around three weeks.

Key points to consider:

• Inspections in Kazakhstan are selective. Certain categories of goods — primarily electronics and consumer goods — are stopped more frequently. Shippers should be prepared for inspections to take several weeks and, in some cases, potentially several months.
• Chinese Customs continues to apply enhanced controls to exports of dual-use goods. Supporting documentation from manufacturers should be prepared in advance.

The situation at European border crossings remains tense, with the most significant queues currently observed on the Polish route. According to the latest operational update from the State Border Committee of Belarus, approximately 1,240 trucks are currently waiting in queues in front of Polish border checkpoints. There are no queues for vehicles exiting the EU.

Fuel costs are once again putting pressure on the cost base of European road transportation. Diesel prices continued to increase across most EU countries in August, with the EU average approaching EUR 2/litre. Germany, France and the Netherlands remain among the most expensive markets, while Poland continues to offer a relative cost advantage in terms of fuel prices. Against the backdrop of reduced diesel supply in Europe and continuing geopolitical risks, carriers continue to include a higher fuel component in their rates. The risk of further rate increases will remain in September.

Key points to consider:

• For border crossings, it is preferable to carry a complete set of supporting documents, including the contract, payment confirmations and a letter from the shipper confirming that the cargo is not a dual-use item. This is particularly important where goods are destined for third countries and can help avoid vehicle delays and cancellation of export declarations.

For reference, current indicative rates are:

• Germany–Moscow, curtain-side truck: EUR 5,500 per truck
• Italy–Moscow, refrigerated truck: EUR 9,000 per truck

Every time we prepare the WELLGO TRANSPORT UPDATE for our partners, we are reminded just how inexhaustible the transport and logistics news agenda can be.

The development of international transport corridors in Russia remains high on the Government’s agenda and once again became a major topic at the September Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. Particular attention was given to the potential of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, including the long-term ambition of making the Northern Sea Route operational on a year-round basis. A portfolio of 271 investment and innovation projects with a total value exceeding RUB 32 trillion has already been developed as part of the comprehensive programme. And those are some serious prospects — not only for the logistics market, but for the economy as a whole.

We welcome your comments, feedback, or any specific Logistics, Transportation, and Supply Chain inquiries.
Please share your requests via the dedicated form on our website or reach out to our team directly, to lock in current rates or analyse your specific Trade Lane:

WELLGO remains your reliable international logistics partner!