Transport Logistics Market Update: May 2026

Welcome to the WELLGO transport update for this month. We begin with news of the mandatory registration process for Freight Forwarding providers.

As of March 1, 2026, a registry of notifications on freight forwarding activities was launched on the GosLog national digital transport and logistics platform. All Freight Forwarders providing freight forwarding services must be registered as of May 1.

WELLGO, trading as NAO TRADE LLC, was registered in the freight forwarder registry under number GL-B044-00112-00/00009498 on April 30, 2026, and continues freight and logistics operations in full compliance with legal requirements. We are also preparing for the transition to electronic shipping and freight forwarding documents effective from September 1 this year.

According to analysts, with whom we partially agree, May and the following months of 2026 will be characterized by continued structural changes in the Russian logistics industry. We foresee increased regulatory pressure, rising costs, declining transportation margins, and increased digitalization of processes. These factors will have a broad impact on carrier rates, competition, new technological solutions, and the labour market.

As a result, negative trends in the industry may intensify. In particular:

Time will tell how optimistic or pessimistic the future developments will be, but nevertheless WELLGO have prepared our transport forecasts for your information.

Low domestic demand for shipping and the Middle East conflict continue to impact maritime container turnover. According to statistical estimates, container turnover at the ports of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad fell by more than 20% from January to April 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Some cargo from Asia and India was shipped via the Far East, so we expect a further decline in cargo traffic for ports in northwestern Russia during May.

Meanwhile, sea carriers continue to maintain regular sailings and adhere to the planned departure schedules from China. As long as the situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Bosphorus allows for relatively safe navigation, carriers will continue to use this shipping route.

What you need to know:

Given the current (at the time of writing) fragile ceasefire, extended by both parties to the conflict, the prospects for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are more optimistic than previously estimated. However, the cost of such logistics will not yet return to previous levels. Vessel passage will likely remain subject to tolls, and, in the event of a new round of military escalation, the current surcharges may be further increased.

WELLGO anticipate increased demand for shipping via the NSR (Northern Sea Route) this season. What's safer: waiting for favorable conditions at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, or icebreaking along the northern latitudes?

In the lead-up to the Chinese holidays from May 1st to 5th, there is a shortage of space for shipments from major stations for the first ten days of the month. After a significant increase, rates are gradually beginning to decline, but with no guarantee of long-term availability. Given the low train occupancy, the main factor holding back a more significant rate reduction is the reduction in capacity on Chinese Railways. Consequently, a shortage of space is artificially created. Transit times can increase by 5-10 days: the main disadvantage is that cargo owners learn of ETD delays only after the fact, often only after loaded containers arrive at railway terminals.

The market is still cool to routes through Kazakhstan, where inspections of certain goods were tightened in April—for example, electronics, cargo with built-in batteries, etc. The main risk for such cargo is the lengthy inspection procedures required by Kazakh customs, which, according to our data, can take months and entail significant additional costs. Meanwhile, the situation in Zabaikalsk and Mongolia remains tense despite the reduction in railway plans, but there are no congestion or lengthy waits for reloading.

Transit times from station to station have returned to normal and do not exceed 30 days for most departure stations in China.

Current border crossing deadlines:
Zabaikalsk – about 10-14 days
Alashankou (Kazakhstan) – about 10-14 days
Erlian (Mongolia) – about 12-15 days

WELLGO expect a slight increase in tariffs for new bookings after the Chinese holidays. This increase will be temporary and will last 1-2 weeks.

Given the outflow of sea cargo toward the Far East, the likelihood of a deterioration in the situation at the Zabaikalsk and Mongolia ports under current conditions is low.

Remains the most stable service without any obvious difficulties or delays. After the introduction of the GRI (General Rate Increase) and BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor) in March, rate increases halted in April. No significant freight price changes have been announced for May. Given that many shipping lines simultaneously provide service to St. Petersburg, Novorossiysk, and the Far East, the redistribution of volumes occurred without delays or overbookings . Bookings were, and continue to be, accepted as usual.

Terminal service rates for rail shipments to Moscow and the regions are expected to increase in May. This is due to railcar owners increasing rental costs of rolling stock. Meanwhile, the terminals themselves are operating normally and are ready to accommodate new shipping lines, confirming the low cargo volume density on this route. Fleet rotations on individual services are maintained, without affecting overall transit times.

Current waiting times for loading on the railway from Vladivostok and Nakhodka remain normal:

Moscow 5-10 days
St. Petersburg 7-10 days
Yekaterinburg 10-14 days
Novosibirsk 10-14 days

Estimated transit time: 40-45 days (port to station). Moscow stations are operating as usual to receive containers.

The situation here has not changed dramatically; customers using this route for their supply chains enjoy the relatively stable domestic and international services currently available.

• WRS and ERS supplements remain in place
• The schedule is available until the end of June.
• There is no shortage of equipment and space.

Tariffs for May:

• Nhava Sheva / Mundra – St. Petersburg – 4800 USD / 40HC, Estimated transit time: 28-32 days (port to port)
• Nhava Sheva / Mundra – Novorossiysk – 5450 USD / 40HC, Estimated transit time: 22-24 days (port to port)

Here, as usual, the timing is influenced by the seasonal weather factor in Russian waters, as well as the occasional tensions associated with maritime safety measures.

• Ships are passing through the Bosphorus as usual.
• Unloading delays in Novorossiysk are possible due to weather conditions.

Average tariffs for May from major Turkish ports:

• 1980 USD / 20DC
• 2180 USD / 40HC

Cargo owners often choose road transportation with ferry delivery via the port of Tuapse. Sea routes to St. Petersburg are unpopular due to long transit times (up to 55 days).

In late March and early April, there was an unusual increase in fares on the China-Russia. Market uncertainty due to the Middle East and rising fuel prices put additional pressure on rates. WELLGO notes that some of the increases were speculative in nature, driven by general market hype rather than an objective increase in transportation costs.

Since mid-April, the market has shown a noticeable shift in dynamics: rising fuel prices no longer correlated with rate increases.

Amid a seasonal increase in passenger traffic, passenger airlines increased flight frequency, while overall demand for cargo transportation slowed, creating oversupply. Capacity availability is currently assessed as high - meaning fares are low, including compared to the same period last year.

Average rates for 1,000+ kg cargo this week:

The Turkey-Russia route is relatively stable, preparing for the tourist season. In particular, Southwind Airlines has resumed flights from Antalya using wide-body aircraft, significantly expanding the capacity for transporting palletized cargo and generally increasing capacity availability on the route.

A further increase in capacity is expected at the end of May with the planned launch of Aeroflot wide-body flights from Antalya. The launch of these flights will contribute to even more competitive fares from Turkey.

The following options are currently available for cargo delivery on the Istanbul–Moscow route:

In terms of price dynamics, the market remains relatively calm: there have been no significant increases in tariffs. The current tariff level is between 2 USD/kg and depends on the type of aircraft, airline and route.

The UAE is gradually returning to operations in conditions close to pre-crisis conditions following the easing of the situation in the Middle East. Currently, a transition is being observed from a state of heightened uncertainty to a cautious normalisation phase.

UAE authorities announced the resumption of in-person classes in all public and private schools starting April 20, which is one indicator of the stabilization of the domestic situation.

At the same time, operations at key aviation hubs—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah —are also returning to normal. Previously imposed airspace restrictions are gradually being eased: foreign air carriers are permitted to operate flights to the UAE with certain restrictions.

Russian aviation authorities have also authorised domestic passenger airlines to operate flights to Dubai. However, flights by Aeroflot, Pobeda, Utair , and S7 have not yet resumed. According to information from the carriers, the return of flight programs is not expected until early June.

The following solutions are available from Dubai:

On the Indian route . Direct air service is supported by Aeroflot's scheduled flights. A wide range of transit solutions are also available, based on the product range, weight, and required delivery speed.

The main options available from India are:

This year, with the cancellation of Volga-Dnepr Airlines flights from Mumbai, we were left without domestic cargo air service to India. This month's news was the launch of cargo charter flights by Aeroflot. The next cargo flight will operate on May 1. Given limited capacity and high interest in this route, available seats are filling quickly. WELLGO recommend planning your shipments in advance and confirming your bookings promptly.

April began with a sharp price increase, especially for cargo traveling through the Manzhouli-Zabaikalsk border crossing. This is due to high demand and the limited number of vehicles at this crossing. Fuel prices in China have also risen since the beginning of March, peaking at 17%, but since April 22, prices have fallen by 6%.

Current Shanghai-Moscow rates:

• via Kazakhstan: 9000 – 10000 USD/TC
• via Manchuria: 13000 - 14000 USD/TC

When planning shipments, as previously stated, please take into account the May holidays. China is closed from May 1st to May 5th, Kazakhstan from May 1st to May 3rd, May 7th, May 9th, and May 27th.

What you need to know:

The risk of inspections in Kazakhstan remains. Inspections are random, but certain goods (mainly electronics) are stopped in batches. Be prepared for delays of several weeks, or even months. For urgent shipments, it's best to choose lower-risk routes (for example, through Mongolia or the border crossings between Russia and China).

• At Kazakh crossings, the accuracy of the transit declaration is also checked, in particular the type of packaging indicated in the TD.
• Chinese customs have strengthened export controls on dual-use goods, and manufacturers may be required to provide additional documentation.

• Bakhty / Tacheng – free slots available for the 4^th
• Alashankou / Dostyk - free slots for the 17^th
• Zimunai / Maykapchigai - no queues, closed Sunday
• Khorgos/ Nur Zhol - no free slots for a month in advance, paid reservations for the next day

Entry into Manchuria must be booked at least 14 days in advance; border crossing takes 1-2 days. Difficulties entering Manchuria may affect transit times. As always, check in with WELLGO Kazakhstan for more info.

The situation with shipments from Europe is currently stable, with no significant changes. There are no queues at existing crossings.

Due to the May holidays, shipments should be planned in advance. Several European countries have planned restrictions on heavy-duty vehicle traffic during the May holidays. These restrictions typically apply to vehicles over 7.5 tons and are in effect on highways and major roads.

Some of the restrictions include:

• April 30: Croatia — 15:00–23:00, France — 22:00–00:00, Luxembourg — restrictions on travel to France (21:30–00:00) and Germany (23:30–00:00), Poland — 18:00–22:00, Hungary — 22:00–00:00.
• May 1: Austria, France, Germany, Slovakia, Hungary — 00:00–22:00, Poland — 08:00–22:00, Czech Republic — 13:00–22:00, Slovenia — 08:00–22:00, Croatia — 14:00–23:00, Luxembourg — 00:00–21:45, Italy — 09:00–22:00
• May 2: Poland — 18:00–22:00, Slovenia — 08:00–22:00.
• May 3: Poland — 08:00–22:00, Italy — 09:00–22:00.

Additionally, cargo transportation in Italy is planned to be suspended from May 25 to 29. Exceptions to the restrictions apply to the transportation of essential goods; for other goods, violations will incur fines.

Furthermore, the EU has abolished duty-free import privileges for Chinese e- commerce goods under €150 starting in 2026. An additional levy of €2 per product category has been introduced. Thus, the EU is restricting the flow of low-cost goods from China, which has slightly dampened cargo traffic on this route.

What you need to know:

Despite some slack in the freight transport market from geo-politics, the domestic business community is more excited by the one of the key provisions of Federal Law 140. According to Law 140, from 1^st May , any freight forwarder not included in the GosLog Freight Forwarder Register will lose the right to provide freight forwarding services in the Russian Federation.

Based on recent publications, the number of freight forwarders not yet registered in the system is significantly higher than the total number of those who submitted applications. We will be sure to let you know how this situation develops.

WELLGO remains your reliable international logistics partner. Have a wonderful spring holiday! For more information, see our web site www.wellgo.ru. Follow our news and send inquiries to info@wellgo.ru